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THE DETERMINANTS OF INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN PAKISTAN A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

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10 Pages : 96-105

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/grr.2024(IX-III).10      10.31703/grr.2024(IX-III).10      Published : Sep 2024

The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

    This study investigates the determinants of industrial growth in Pakistan through an empirical analysis of quarterly data spanning from 1970 to 2022. Industrial growth is the dependent variable, while the inflation rate, rate of exchange, foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, and terms of trade are independent variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed due to the mixed stationarity, as indicated by the augmented dickey-fuller test. The results reveal a positive long-run relationship between FDI and industrial growth, as well as between gross fixed capital formation and industrial growth. Conversely, a negative relationship is observed between the exchange rate and industrial growth, and between the interest rate and industrial growth. All variables to be statistically significant, except for terms of trade. Furthermore, the inflation rate and rate of exchange show a reducing impact on industrial growth, while FDI and gross fixed capital formation contribute positively to industrial growth.

    FDI, Industrial Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate

    (1) Afaq Amjid
    MS Scholar, Department of Economics, Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
    (2) Mukamil Shah
    Assistant Professor, Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
    (3) Noorulain
    PhD Scholar, Department of Economics, Institute of Management Sciences Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
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Cite this article

APA

CHICAGO

    CHICAGO : Amjid, Afaq, Mukamil Shah, and Noorulain. 2024. "The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Global Regional Review, IX (III): 96-105 doi: 10.31703/grr.2024(IX-III).10

HARVARD

    HARVARD : AMJID, A., SHAH, M. & NOORULAIN. 2024. The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis. Global Regional Review, IX, 96-105.

MHRA

    MHRA : Amjid, Afaq, Mukamil Shah, and Noorulain. 2024. "The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Global Regional Review, IX: 96-105

MLA

    MLA : Amjid, Afaq, Mukamil Shah, and Noorulain. "The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Global Regional Review, IX.III (2024): 96-105 Print.

OXFORD

    OXFORD : Amjid, Afaq, Shah, Mukamil, and Noorulain, (2024), "The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis", Global Regional Review, IX (III), 96-105

TURABIAN

    TURABIAN : Amjid, Afaq, Mukamil Shah, and Noorulain. "The Determinants of Industrial Output in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Global Regional Review IX, no. III (2024): 96-105. https://doi.org/10.31703/grr.2024(IX-III).10