EVALUATING UNEMPLOYMENT THROUGH GREY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS MODEL A STUDY OF ONE HUNDRED THIRTEEN SELECTED COUNTRIES

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04      10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04      Published : Mar 2021
Authored by : Abdul Aziz Khan Niazi , Tehmina Fiaz Qazi , Abdul Basit

04 Pages : 23-35

    Abstract

    The purpose of the study is to gauge the unemployment level of selected one hundred and thirteen countries. The design of the study includes a survey of the literature, extraction of relevant data and analysis. The study follows a quantitative paradigm of research that uses secondary data set taken from the website of World Development Indicators (WDI). The analysis encompasses selected countries based on the availability of data. The data has been analyzed using Grey Incidence Analysis Model, commonly known as GRA. For interpretation of the results, the methodology has been augmented with the scheme of ensigns (i.e. classification of countries into Extremely Low, Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extremely High) of the level of unemployment. Results show that J&APR have an extremely low level of unemployment and member countries of SADC have an extremely high level of unemployment. Pakistan fall under the ensign of very low, therefore have a low level of unemployment. It is valuable to study equally useful for governments, academia and the international community. This study provides critical new information on the phenomenon.

    Key Words

    Unemployment, Grey Incidence Analysis Model, GRA, Pakistan

    Introduction

    Sustenance is the foremost on the list of human activities. Employment is one of the mediums to accomplish the activity of sustenance. The political governments being legitimate representatives of citizens of the country, are the most concerned stakeholders of the level of employment in a country. Unemployment is the direct question of deprivation of sustenance—higher the level of unemployment questions the very existence of political government. The phenomenon of unemployment attracts great attention of governments and is always a worthy research topic. Governments strive to keep the level of unemployment as low as possible. Evaluation of the country’s unemployment level as against the rest of the world is an evergreen area of analysis. There is no dearth of research studies on unemployment; admittedly, there is an influx of literature. Cappelli et al. (2020) analyzed 248 European Union regions to investigate the impact on unemployment during the 2008 crises and measured economic and technological resilience; the study showed that technological resilience is a better predictor of unemployment resistance. Doppelt (2019) proposed a macroeconomic model discussing in detail the human capital in relation to unemployment. Hall and Zoega (2020) bolstered that better bargaining power and unemployment benefits have a significant effect on escalating leisure enjoyment and dipping employment in Europe. In addition to this, the unemployment benefit has raised the 12% layoff probability (Albanese et al. 2020). Onwachukwu and Okagbue (2019) gathered data from 175 countries for the period of 1991-2017 and stated that the countries that joined World Trade Organization (WTO) between 2011-2017 had the lowest unemployment as compared to the countries joined between 1995-1999 and 2000-2010. Pohlan (2019) uncovered some social (life satisfaction & social integration perception) and economic (access to economic resources) consequences of unemployment. Rhee and Song (2020) concluded that nominal wage rigidities result in an increase in real wages and unemployment. Sibande et al. (2019) analyzed data from 1855 to 2017 and found it insignificant in the direction of unemployment to UK stock market returns, significant in opposite and bi-direction. In view of the representation, the apropos aim of the study is to evaluate the level of unemployment of one hundred thirteen countries, compare it on the basis of grey relational grades, classify the countries according to the level of unemployment prevailing in thereof and discuss the results of the model. For achieving these objectives multitude of methodologies were considered that include SEM, GMM, ISM, DEA, GRA etc. Grey Incidence Analysis Model (commonly known as GRA) was found to be the most appropriate methodology. It was also considered to opt for different types of available data sets on the unemployment level, and the data set available on the website of WDI is considered to be most appropriate and reliable. Therefore, the study uses GRA as a methodology and data set of WDI for achieving its objectives. The study is arranged as section one ‘introduction’, section two ‘literature review’, section three ‘methodology’, section four ‘results & discussion’ and section five ‘concluding remarks.  

    Literature Review

    Avalanche of contemporary studies is available on unemployment across the globe including: unemployment and incubation center in Nigeria (Akanle & Omotayo, 2020), unemployment statistics in South Africa (Alenda-Demoutiez & Mügge, 2020), identified major determinants of unemployment in Colombia (Arango & Flórez, 2020), association of unemployment with human capital loss and suicide rate in Italy (Bagliano et al., 2019; Mattei & Pistoresi, 2019), empirical findings of unemployment in an open economy of 18 OECD countries (Bertinelli  et al., 2020; Khraief et al., 2020), local unemployment and health in Ireland (Briody et al., 2020), coal-fired power stations closure and local unemployment in Australia (Burke et al., 2019), perseverance of unemployment rate over past century in US and UK (Cho & Rho, 2019),  policy reforms of zero level unemployment benefits in Belgium (Cockx et al., 2020), unemployment benefits and experience in East Asia (Hwang, 2019), affects of financial development and energy sources on unemployment in Egypt (Ibrahiem & Sameh, 2020), examine technology perception and its relation to unemployment in Gulf (Jaradat et al., 2020), hysteresis in unemployment for G7 countries as of 1980-2017 (Jiang et al., 2019), effects of unemployment benefits in Finland (Kyyrä & Pesola, 2020), impact of parental unemployment in educational transition in Germany (Lindemann & Gangl, 2019), impacts of oil prices variation on unemployment in US and Canada (Kocaaslan, 2019; Nusair, 2020), impact of unemployment on infant health in Japan (Kohara et al., 2019), impact of obesity and mobility disability on unemployment in Sweden (Norrbäck et al., 2019), effects of oil price changes on unemployment in Spain (Ordóñez et al., 2019), impact of local unemployment on Presidential election in Qatar (Park & Reeves, 2020), unemployment rate in Great Depression in USA (Petrosky-Nadeau & Zhang, 2020), unemployment spells and local labour market conditions in different districts of UK (Pierse & McHale, 2020), parental unemployment and child health in China (Pieters & Rawlings, 2020), unemployment in Europe before and after financial crises (Pompei & Selezneva, 2019), unemployment and property crime in Croatia (Recher, 2020), unemployment affects on self-perceived health in France (Ronchetti & Terriau, 2019), unemployment rate trend in Turkey (Sengul & Tasci, 2020), unemployment in Switzerland during in time of COVID-19 (Sheldon, 2020), impact of lower wages on unemployment/employment in Indonesia (Siregar, 2020), unemployment causes overweight, obesity and over obesity in Brazil (Triaca et al., 2020), impact of unemployment on non-monetary quality of job in Europe (Voßemer, 2019).

    Bauer and Weber (2020) stated that the shutdown in Germany during the COVID-19 period caused 60% (117,000 persons) unemployment in April as compared to inflows in employment. Blustein et al. (2020) highlighted the global unemployment crisis evoked by the COVID-19 outbreak and also uncovered how that unemployment catastrophe has been different from preceding unemployment phases.

    Theoretical Framework and Variable Specification

    Gender

    Albanesi and ?ahin (2018) stated that the male-female unemployment gap and disparity between their unemployment rates was positive till the early 1980s, and later in 1983, this gap moved out except during the period of recessions. Fa?oš and Bohdalová (2019) analyzed gender inequality in relation to the unemployment rate for 27 countries of the European Union between 2005-2017 and found mixed results.  Longhi (2020) conducted a longitudinal study on ethnic unemployment differentials in the UK with a special focus on Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Indian black the Caribbean and black African men and women in comparison to white British men and women and revealed a higher unemployment rate in ethnic minorities as compared to white British men and women. Similar study and findings have also been carried out by Li & Heath (2020). Tüzemen (2019) asserted that gender, age and skill have changed the determinants of the unemployment rate in the US, which was declined by 0.5% in 1994, by 4.5% at the end of 2017 and project 4.4% more decline rate at the end of 2022. Yavorsky and Dill (2020) proclaimed that unemployment causes men to enter into a female-dominated job at the expense of occupational prestige and wages.

     

    Youth

    Clark and Lepinteur (2019) examined the adult experience of unemployment from the age they left education up to 30 years age. Dvouletý et al. (2020) identified that along with ethnic background, education, age and gender, others factors such as the parental experience of unemployment, taking a risk, and religious attachment are pertinent determinants of young adults’ unemployment. Görmü? (2019) argued that desire to work full time, lack of work experience & qualification, semi skill occupations are the major determinants of long-term youth unemployment. Liotti (2020) concluded that economic crises had a severe impact on youth and adult unemployment from 2001-2006 in 20 Italian regions. Johansson et al. (2019) carried a study on adolescents in 27 countries across 2001/2002, 2005/2006, 2009/2010; and found lower adolescent life satisfaction in higher national unemployment rate countries. Sansale et al. (2019) asserted that the role of personality has a major determinant in employment/unemployment among young adults between 2008-2015 in the USA.

     

    Education

    Lehti et al. (2019); Lindemann and Gangl (2019); Pieters and Rawlings (2020) found that parental unemployment impacts siblings’ educational outcomes, educational transition and child health. Miettinen and Jalovaara (2020) affirmed that education strongly modified the relationship between unemployment and parenthood transition both among men and women in a similar manner. Schmillen (2019) collected data from more than 800,000 graduates of vocational education over the period of 25 years and concluded that vocational education has a significant economic and statistical impact on unemployment that of professional career. Wilczy?ska et al. (2020) proclaimed that occupational unemployment has no effect on permanent workers but has an adverse effect on temporary knowledge workers.


     

    Table 1. Variables’ Specification

    Code

    Variable to Assess Unemployment

    Measure

    Criteria

    1

    Unemployment Male

    % of mlf

    Minimum acceptable

    2

    Unemployment Female

    % of flf

    Minimum acceptable

    3

    Unemployment Youth Male

    % of mlf * ages 15-24

    Minimum acceptable

    4

    Unemployment Youth Female

    % of flf ** ages 15-24

    Minimum acceptable

    5

    Unemployment with basic education

    % of tlf *** with basic education

    Minimum acceptable

    6

    Unemployment with intermediate education

    % of tlf *** with intermediate education

    Minimum acceptable

    7

    Unemployment with advanced education

    % of tlf *** with advanced education

    Minimum acceptable

    *Male labor force, **female labor force, and *** total labor force

     


    Readers will find ensigns information extremely helpful in forming an informed opinion regarding a country’s health system.

    Methodology

    The philosophical foundations of this study are more titled towards positivism. It is a deductive study using a cross-sectional time horizon based on archival secondary data. It is a mono method mathematical type of research study. The design of the study consists of a critical survey of relevant literature available in the databases like ScienceDirect, Emerald, Wiley Blackwell, Taylor & Springer, Francis etc., extraction of data from the website of WDI and analysis. A complete data set of 113 countries on seven different variables were found available on the apropos website. Therefore, this study is envisaged on the analysis of 113 countries with 7 variables. The study employs Grey Incidence Analysis Model, commonly known as Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) (Uckun et al., 2012). GRA progresses stepwise (Hamzacebi et al., 2011; Kuo et el., 2008; Tayyar et al., 2014; Wu, 2002, Zhai et al., 2009). GRA has the capability to evaluate, analyze and compare alternatives against the cross-sections. The data was extracted from the website in MS excel format, and GRA progressed stepwise using MS excel (formula prompt). However, since the analysis involves long tables, therefore, stepwise representation in this study is given by using the skip row technique.


     

    Grey Incidence Analysis Model

    The classical steps of GRA are used to implement the model

     

    Step One

    Original dataset for decision matrix

      (1)

     

    Table 2. Statistics of Unemployment

    S. No

    Country

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    1

    Afghanistan

    1

    2

    2

    4

    12

    16

    16

    2

    Albania

    15

    13

    33

    27

    14

    20

    19

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    2

    5

    5

    8

    4

    6

    7

    80

    Panama

    3

    5

    8

    13

    3

    6

    3

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    25

    51

    41

    72

    24

    25

    33

    113

    Zambia

    8

    7

    16

    16

    11

    14

    7

     Source: (WDI 2020)

     

    Step Two

    Incorporated reference and created comparison matrix:

     (2)

     

    Table 3. Reference Series with Comparable Series

    S. No

    Country

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0

    Reference Sequence

    0.6

    0.60

    1.2

    1.2

    0.6

    1.1

    0.9

    1

    Afghanistan

    1.1

    2.4

    2.1

    3.7

    12

    16

    16

    2

    Albania

    15

    13

    33

    27

    14

    20

    19

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    2.4

    5.1

    5.3

    8.3

    3.9

    5.6

    7.1

    80

    Panama

    3.2

    5.1

    8.2

    13

    3.2

    5.5

    3.2

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    25

    51

    41

    72

    24

    25

    33

    113

    Zambia

    7.5

    6.9

    16

    16

    11

    14

    7

     

    Step Three

    Normalized the data by using the following equation (3) (i.e. formula for normalization of data possessing the characteristic ‘minimum acceptable’.

                                   (3)

     

    Table 4. Normalization of Values

    S. No

    Country

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0

    Reference

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1

    Afghanistan

    0.9795

    0.9643

    0.9808

    0.9647

    0.6481

    0.4659

    0.5296

    2

    Albania

    0.4098

    0.7540

    0.3205

    0.6356

    0.5864

    0.3226

    0.4361

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    0.9262

    0.9107

    0.9124

    0.8997

    0.8981

    0.8387

    0.8069

    80

    Panama

    0.8934

    0.9107

    0.8504

    0.8333

    0.9198

    0.8423

    0.9283

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.1496

    0.0000

    0.2778

    0.1434

    0.0000

    113

    Zambia

    0.7172

    0.8750

    0.6838

    0.7910

    0.6790

    0.5376

    0.8100

    To illustrate the calculation of Afghanistan ‘unemployment male.’

     

     

    Step Four

     Obtained absolute values by calculating deviation sequence.     

                                            (4)

     

    For the highest deviation following equation is used:

                              (5)

     

    For the lowest deviation following equation is used:

                              (6)

     

    Table 5. Deviation Sequence

    S. No

    Country

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0

    Reference

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.0000

    0.0000

    1

    Afghanistan

    0.0205

    0.0357

    0.0192

    0.0353

    0.3519

    0.5341

    0.4704

    2

    Albania

    0.5902

    0.2460

    0.6795

    0.3644

    0.4136

    0.6774

    0.5639

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    0.0738

    0.0893

    0.0876

    0.1003

    0.1019

    0.1613

    0.1931

    80

    Panama

    0.1066

    0.0893

    0.1496

    0.1667

    0.0802

    0.1577

    0.0717

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    1.0000

    1.0000

    0.8504

    1.0000

    0.7222

    0.8566

    1.0000

    113

    Zambia

    0.2828

    0.1250

    0.3162

    0.2090

    0.3210

    0.4624

    0.1900

    To illustrate the calculation of deviation for ‘unemployment, female.’

     

     

    Step Five

    Grey relational co-efficient is determined on the basis of normalized sequences. The term  is distinguishing-co-efficient between 0 to1. Its usual is value 0.5 in literature.

                                           (7)

     

    Table 6. Grey-Relational Co-efficient

    S. No

    Country

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0

    Reference

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1.0000

    1

    Afghanistan

    0.9606

    0.9333

    0.9630

    0.9340

    0.5870

    0.4835

    0.5152

    2

    Albania

    0.4586

    0.6702

    0.4239

    0.5784

    0.5473

    0.4247

    0.4700

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    0.8714

    0.8485

    0.8509

    0.8329

    0.8308

    0.7561

    0.7213

    80

    Panama

    0.8243

    0.8485

    0.7697

    0.7500

    0.8617

    0.7602

    0.8747

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    0.3333

    0.3333

    0.3703

    0.3333

    0.4091

    0.3686

    0.3333

    113

    Zambia

    0.6387

    0.8000

    0.6126

    0.7052

    0.6090

    0.5196

    0.7246

    To illustrate reckoning of Grey Relational Co-efficient” for ‘Unemployment, female’ (2) To Albania

     

     

    Step Six

    Worked out the weighted sum of “grey relational co-efficient” commonly known in the literature as “Grey Relational Grade” (8) and (9):

                                  (8)

     

                                                                           (9)

    Table 7. Grey Relational Grades (GRGs)

    S. No

    Country

    GRGs

    0

    Reference

    1.0000

    1

    Afghanistan

    0.7681

    2

    Albania

    0.5104

    ……….

    ……….

    79

    Pakistan

    0.8160

    80

    Panama

    0.8127

    ……….

    ……….

    112

    West Bank and Gaza

    0.3545

    113

    Zambia

    0.6585

    To illustrate grey relational grade for Albania

     

     

    Scheme of Classification of Countries


    In order to appropriately express and represent the country-level results of the apropos analysis, a scheme of ensigns have been introduced (Niazi et al. 2020). This scheme is designed on a continuum of low to high distributed into 7 items (i.e. extremely low, very low, low, moderate, high, very high and extremely high). The scheme of ensigns makes the results of the grey incidence analysis model more meaningful, understandable, interpretable and comparable. This scheme also facilitated by way of bearing brackets of grey relational grades against the scale item. The number of countries has been grouped into stakes by dividing the total number of countries into total scale items Table 8.


     

    Table 8. Scheme of Classification of Countries under Ensigns

    S. No

    Ensign

    Grey Relational Grade

    Explanation

    1

    Extremely Low

    0.8408 -0.9884

    Extremely Low Level of Unemployment

    2

    Very Low

    0.8081-0.8399

    Very Low Level of Unemployment

    3

    Low

    0.7637-0.8067

    Low Level of Unemployment

    4

    Moderate

    0.7146 -0.7534

    Moderate Level of Unemployment

    5

    High

    0.6419 -0.7086

    High Level of Unemployment

    6

    Very High

    0.5240-0.6398

    Very High Level of Unemployment

    7

    Extremely High

    0.3545 -0.5122

    Extremely High Level of Unemployment

    Approximately sixteen countries are grouped against every scale item on the basis of scheme readers can establish a more informed opinion about 

    Results and Discussion

    Result

    Unemployment is ever a current problem of political governments the countries. Sustenance is the foremost activity of human being, so; therefore, a country level evaluation, analysis and comparison of levels of unemployment is agenda of high importance. The contemporary literature is not much fertile in evaluation, analysis and comparison of unemployment among countries. One can hardly find a comparative study. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the phenomenon. It addresses the issue in a novel way using a secondary set of data of a multitude of criteria and with a different type of methodology. Using the GRA (i.e. mathematical technique of data analysis with the capability of handling a multitude of variables, cases and time periods), the study has categorized 113 countries into seven categories (Table 8).


     

    Table 9. Results of GRA

    Country

    *GRGs

    Rank

    Country

    *GRGs

    Rank

    Country

    *GRGs

    Rank

    Reference

    1.0000

    0

    Switzerland

    0.7936

    38

    Uruguay

    0.6791

    77

    Extremely Low

    El Salvador

    0.7913

    39

    Slovak Republic

    0.6715

    78

    Cambodia

    0.9884

    1

    Poland

    0.7907

    40

    Finland

    0.6691

    79

    Thailand

    0.9715

    2

    Denmark

    0.7872

    41

    Cyprus

    0.6618

    80

    Myanmar

    0.9418

    3

    Paraguay

    0.7869

    42

    Very High

    Macao SAR, China

    0.9148

    4

    Timor-Leste

    0.7862

    43

    Zambia

    0.6585

    81

    Vietnam

    0.8902

    5

    Romania

    0.7844

    44

    Nigeria

    0.6557

    82

    Madagascar

    0.8890

    6

    Austria

    0.7810

    45

    Malawi

    0.6459

    83

    Iceland

    0.8665

    7

    Fiji

    0.7753

    46

    Costa Rica

    0.6455

    84

    Trinidad and Tobago

    0.8656

    8

    Afghanistan

    0.7681

    47

    Colombia

    0.6419

    85

    Lao PDR

    0.8597

    9

    Slovenia

    0.7674

    48

    Ukraine

    0.6398

    86

    Guatemala

    0.8574

    10

    Moderate

    Argentina

    0.6351

    87

    United Arab Emirates

    0.8515

    11

    Mozambique

    0.7645

    49

    Croatia

    0.6346

    88

    Liberia

    0.8515

    12

    Rwanda

    0.7640

    50

    France

    0.6328

    89

    Czech Republic

    0.8499

    13

    Honduras

    0.7637

    51

    Mali

    0.6207

    90

    Hong Kong SAR, China

    0.8496

    14

    Indonesia

    0.7534

    52

    Brunei Darussalam

    0.6140

    91

    Mexico

    0.8456

    15

    Estonia

    0.7513

    53

    Samoa

    0.6114

    92

    Cote d'Ivoire

    0.8408

    16

    Bulgaria

    0.7469

    54

    Turkey

    0.6006

    93

    Very Low

    Ghana

    0.7422

    55

    Guyana

    0.5994

    94

    Germany

    0.8408

    17

    India

    0.7411

    56

    Cabo Verde

    0.5992

    95

    Moldova

    0.8399

    18

    Luxembourg

    0.7396

    57

    Italy

    0.5939

    96

    Netherlands

    0.8326

    19

    Bangladesh

    0.7395

    58

    Extremely High

    Bolivia

    0.8300

    20

    Mongolia

    0.7379

    59

    Brazil

    0.5688

    97

    Uganda

    0.8291

    21

    Belarus

    0.7333

    60

    Georgia

    0.5463

    98

    Peru

    0.8264

    22

    Dominican Republic

    0.7332

    61

    Serbia

    0.5446

    99

    Kazakhstan

    0.8251

    23

    Russian Federation

    0.7322

    62

    Iran, Islamic Rep.

    0.5344

    100

    Singapore

    0.8238

    24

    Ireland

    0.7319

    63

    Egypt, Arab Rep.

    0.5334

    101

    Malaysia

    0.8229

    25

    Canada

    0.7270

    64

    Montenegro

    0.5240

    102

    Korea, Rep.

    0.8218

    26

    High

    Spain

    0.5122

    103

    Pakistan

    0.8160

    27

    Maldives

    0.7266

    65

    Albania

    0.5104

    104

    Malta

    0.8157

    28

    Sri Lanka

    0.7219

    66

    Tunisia

    0.4943

    105

    United States

    0.8149

    29

    Kenya

    0.7189

    67

    Armenia

    0.4740

    106

    Ecuador

    0.8136

    30

    Lithuania

    0.7146

    68

    Greece

    0.4567

    107

    Panama

    0.8127

    31

    Belgium

    0.7086

    69

    Namibia

    0.4458

    108

    Hungary

    0.8112

    32

    Sweden

    0.6999

    70

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    0.4438

    109

    Low

    Senegal

    0.6918

    71

    Eswatini

    0.4342

    110

    Norway

    0.8081

    33

    Portugal

    0.6892

    72

    North Macedonia

    0.4342

    111

    Nepal

    0.8081

    34

    Mauritius

    0.6883

    73

    South Africa

    0.3964

    112

    Israel

    0.8067

    35

    Chile

    0.6870

    74

    West Bank and Gaza

    0.3545

    113

    Philippines

    0.8021

    36

    Latvia

    0.6830

    75

     

     

     

    United Kingdom

    0.8000

    37

    Belize

    0.6803

    76

     

     

     

    *Grey Relational Grades=GRGs

     


    The result of the analysis shows that there are a total of sixteen countries categorized as countries having extremely low unemployment. Most of the countries under this ensign of classification are member countries of Japan & the Asian Pacific Rim (J&APR). Sixteen under the very low ensign, most of which are member countries of APEC and OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of low, most of which are member countries of OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of moderate, most of which are member countries of APEC, Eastern Europe (EE), European Union (EU), OECD and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Sixteen under the ensign of high, most of which are member countries of OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of very high, most of which are member countries of EU, OECD and Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). Seventeen under the ensign of extremely high, most of which are member-countries South African Development Community (SADC). Pakistan fall under the ensign of very low therefore has low unemployment.

    Discussion

    The main objective of the study is to represent a country level comparative analysis of the unemployment of 113 countries. This study is different from contemporary literature on many different counts, e.g. in data set, in methodological choice, number of countries subject to analysis, in classification and presentation of results and selection of variables. The results of the study, in general, are pretty aligned with the results of contemporary research studies. For enrichment of understanding of the readers, a comparative analysis of relevant studies is given as Table 9.


     

    Table 10. Comparison with Existing Literature

    Study

    Focus of Study

    Factors/Variables

    Methodology

    Result

    Current study

    Evaluation of the level of unemployment in 113 countries.

     

    Unemployment, gender, youth and education

    GRA

    J&APR countries have extremely low, SADC countries have extremely high whereas Pakistan has a low level of unemployment

    Görmü? (2019)

    Examine the relationship between youth and adult in relation to unemployment and demographic

    Work experience, desire to work a full-time job, lack of qualification, inter-regional disparities in the context of economic development, semi-skill occupation, youth, adult and unemployment.

    Logistic regression

    Desire to work full time, lack of work experience & qualification, semi skill occupations are the major determinants of long-term youth unemployment.

    Sansale et al. (2019)

    Examine the role of personality among young adults in unemployment duration

    Married female, female, married, age, black, high school degree, associate’s degree and bachelor’s degree

    Competing risk model

    Personality has a major determinant in employment/unemployment among young adults.

    Miettinen and Jalovaara (2020)

    Educational differences and employment uncertainty

    Employment status, income and cohabiting union data

    Constant exponential model

    Education modified the relationship between unemployment and parenthood transition both in female and male in the same way.

    Yavorsky and Dill (2020)

    Men’s entrance into female-dominated job and unemployment

    Percent wage change, change in occupation prestige, unemployment and female-dominated occupation.

    Logistic regression and linear regression

    Unemployment causes men to enter into female-dominated job.

     


    Contemporary studies use traditional statistical models and conventional variables to measure unemployment in the limited scope of one or few countries on different archival data sets. The results of the study, therefore, give very limited insights into the phenomenon. The study in hand gives relatively more compressive and precise insights, particularly on comparison of countries and blocs. 

    Concluding Remarks

    The level of unemployment in a country is a deep concern of stakeholders. From time to time, country-level comparative analysis of the level of unemployment is the call of the day. Therefore, the problem under investigation is evaluation analysis and comparison of unemployment level in 113 countries. An extensive literature review has been done before embarking on any analysis. The analysis has been performed by stepwise implementing grey incidence analysis model on country level secondary data of variables like unemployment, gender, youth and education. The result shows that member countries of J&APR has extremely low unemployment and accordingly that of APEC & OECD very low, EE & SAARC moderate, some of OECD high, EU, OECD & UNASUR very high and member countries of SADC have an extremely high level of unemployment. Pakistan fall under the ensign of very low, therefore has low unemployment. This study has a novel theoretical and practical contribution to the literature. It has contributed a ranking of 113 countries along with grey relational grades. It also contributed a classification of these countries on the continuum of an ordinal scale of low to a high level of unemployment and provided new insights and information. This study also has practical implications for political government, policymakers, society at large, and researchers in mainstream economist by way of developing an informed understanding of the country level position of unemployment. Firstly, it is a cross-sectional secondary data-based study and subjects the limitations attached to this type of designs. Longitudinal design and/or primary data set may be employed in future. Secondly, the study uses Grey Incidence Analysis Model based on normalized data that might have lost some properties; therefore,, it is recommended to validate the results through some statistical methodology. Thirdly, the study uses equal weights for the variables for simplicity; however,, future research can use an the analytical hierarchy process or entropy method for giving weights to the variables. Fourthly, the data set used has been taken from the website of WDI, and the generalization of the results are subject to the precision of data, therefore, it is recommended to validate the results by using different dataset in a similar type of model. Lastly, the study investigated the phenomenon with 113 alternatives and seven criteria; therefore, it is recommended to increase alternatives and/or a number of criteria.  

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  • Norrbäck, M., Tynelius, P., Ahlström, G., & Rasmussen, F. (2019). The association of mobility disability and obesity with risk of unemployment in two cohorts from Sweden. BMC public health, 19(1), 347.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2020). The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the US. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 21, e00153.
  • Onwachukwu, C. I., & Okagbue, E. F. (2019). Unemployment effect of WTO ascension: Evidence from a natural experiment. International Economics, 159, 48-55.
  • Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M., & Cuestas, J. C. (2019). Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181, 625-634.
  • Park, T., & Reeves, A. (2020). Local unemployment and voting for president: uncovering causal mechanisms. Political Behavior, 42(2), 443-463
  • Petrosky-Nadeau, N., & Zhang, L. (2020). Unemployment crises. Journal of Monetary Economics.
  • Pierse, T., & McHale, J. (2020). Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions. Applied Economics, 52(19), 2109- 2122.
  • Pieters, J., & Rawlings, S. (2020). Parental unemployment and child health in China. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(1), 207-237.
  • Pohlan, L. (2019). Unemployment and social exclusion. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 164, 273-299.
  • Pompei, F., & Selezneva, E. (2019). Unemployment and education mismatch in the EU before and after the financial crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling.
  • Recher, V. (2020). Unemployment and property crime: evidence from Croatia. Crime, Law and Social Change, 73(3), 357-376.
  • Rhee, H. J., & Song, J. (2020). Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 88, 244-262.
  • Ronchetti, J., & Terriau, A. (2019). Impact of unemployment on self-perceived health. The European Journal of Health Economics, 20(6), 879- 889.
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  • Schmillen, A. (2019). Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career. Empirical Economics, 57(3), 805-838.
  • Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 103202.
  • Sheldon, G. (2020). Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 156(1), 1-9.
  • Sibande, X., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2019). Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 49, 81-88.
  • Siregar, T. H. (2020). Impacts of minimum wages on employment and unemployment in Indonesia. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 25(1), 62-78.
  • Triaca, L. M., Jacinto, P. D. A., França, M. T. A., & Tejada, C. A. O. (2020). Does greater unemployment make people thinner in Brazil?. Health Economics
  • Tüzemen, D. (2019). Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
  • Voßemer, J. (2019). The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 379-401.
  • Wilczyńska, A., Batorski, D., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2020). Precarious Knowledge Work? The Combined Effect of Occupational Unemployment and Flexible Employment on Job Insecurity. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11(1), 281-304
  • World Development Indicators, (2020). Retrieved April 15, 2020, from http://wdi.worldbank.org/tables
  • Yavorsky, J. E., & Dill, J. (2020). Unemployment and men's entrance into female-dominated jobs. Social Science Research, 85, 102373.
  • Akanle, O., & Omotayo, A. (2020). Youth, unemployment and incubation hubs in Southwest Nigeria. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 12(2), 165-172.
  • Albanese, A., Picchio, M., & Ghirelli, C. (2020). Timed to say goodbye: Does unemployment benefit eligibility affect worker layoffs?. Labour Economics, 101846.
  • Albanesi, S., & Şahin, A. (2018). The gender unemployment gap. Review of Economic Dynamics, 30, 47-67.
  • Alenda-Demoutiez, J., & Mügge, D. (2020). The lure of ill-fitting unemployment statistics: How South Africa's discouraged work seekers disappeared from the unemployment rate. New Political Economy, 25(4), 590-606.
  • Arango, L. E., & Flórez, L. A. (2020). Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach. Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2431-2464.
  • Bagliano, F. C., Fugazza, C., & Nicodano, G. (2019). Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 325- 340
  • Bauer, A., & Weber, E. (2020). COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?. Applied Economics Letters, 1-6.
  • Bertinelli, L., Cardi, O., & Restout, R. (2020). Relative productivity and search unemployment in an open economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 103938.
  • Blustein, D. L., Duffy, R., Ferreira, J. A., CohenScali, V., Cinamon, R. G., & Allan, B. A. (2020). Unemployment in the time of COVID19: A research agenda. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 119
  • Briody, J., Doyle, O., & Kelleher, C. (2020). The effect of local unemployment on health: A longitudinal study of Irish mothers 2001- 2011. Economics & Human Biology, 37, 100859.
  • Burke, P. J., Best, R., & Jotzo, F. (2019). Closures of coal‐fired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 63(1), 142- 165.
  • Cappelli, R., Montobbio, F., & Morrison, A. (2020). Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1-32.
  • Cho, D., & Rho, S. (2019). Time variation in the persistence of unemployment over the past century. Economics Letters, 182, 19-22.
  • Clark, A. E., & Lepinteur, A. (2019). The causes and consequences of early-adult unemployment: Evidence from cohort data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 166, 107-124.
  • Cockx, B., Declercq, K., Dejemeppe, M., Inga, L., & Van der Linden, B. (2020). Switching from an inclining to a zero-level unemployment benefit profile: Good for work incentives?. Labour Economics, 101816.
  • Doppelt, R. (2019). Skill flows: A theory of human capital and unemployment. Review of Economic Dynamics, 31, 84-122.
  • Dvouletý, O., LukeÅ¡, M., & Vancea, M. (2020). Individual-level and family background determinants of young adults' unemployment in Europe. Empirica, 47(2), 389-409.
  • FaďoÅ¡, M., & Bohdalová, M. (2019). Unemployment gender inequality: evidence from the 27 European Union countries. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(3), 349-371.
  • Görmüş, A. (2019). Long-Term Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Turkish Household Labour Force Survey. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 62(3), 341-359.
  • Hall, A., & Zoega, G. (2020). Welfare, leisure and unemployment. Economics Letters, 109277.
  • Hwang, G. J. (2019). How fair are unemployment benefits? The experience of East Asia. International Social Security Review, 72(2), 49-73.
  • Ibrahiem, D. M., & Sameh, R. (2020). How do clean energy sources and financial development affect unemployment? Empirical evidence from Egypt. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-10.
  • Jaradat, M., Jibreel, M., & Skaik, H. (2020). Individuals' perceptions of technology and its relationship with ambition, unemployment, loneliness and insomnia in the Gulf. Technology in Society, 60, 101199.
  • Jiang, Y., Cai, Y., Peng, Y. T., & Chang, T. (2019). Testing hysteresis in unemployment in G7 countries using quantile unit root test with both sharp shifts and smooth breaks. Social Indicators Research, 142(3), 1211-1229.
  • Johansson, K., Petersen, S., Högberg, B., Stevens, G. W., De Clercq, B., Frasquilho, D., ... & Strandh, M. (2019). The interplay between national and parental unemployment in relation to adolescent life satisfaction in 27 countries: analyses of repeated cross-sectional school surveys. BMC public health, 19(1), 1555
  • Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati, A., & Azam, M. (2020). Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 100838.
  • Kocaaslan, O. K. (2019). Oil price uncertainty and unemployment. Energy Economics, 81, 577-583.
  • Kohara, M., Matsushima, M., & Ohtake, F. (2019). Effect of unemployment on infant health. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 68- 77.
  • Kyyrä, T., & Pesola, H. (2020). The Effects of Unemployment Benefit Duration: Evidence from Residual Benefit Duration. Labour Economics, 101859.
  • Lehti, H., Erola, J., & Karhula, A. (2019). The heterogeneous effects of parental unemployment on siblings' educational outcomes. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 64, 100439.
  • Li, Y., & Heath, A. (2020). Persisting disadvantages: a study of labour market dynamics of ethnic unemployment and earnings in the UK (2009- 2015). Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46(5), 857-878.
  • Lindemann, K., & Gangl, M. (2019). The intergenerational effects of unemployment: How parental unemployment affects educational transitions in Germany. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 62, 100410.
  • Liotti, G. (2020). Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
  • Longhi, S. (2020). A longitudinal analysis of ethnic unemployment differentials in the UK. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46(5), 879-892.
  • Mattei, G., & Pistoresi, B. (2019). Unemployment and suicide in Italy: evidence of a long-run association mitigated by public unemployment spending. The European Journal of Health Economics, 20(4), 569-577.
  • Miettinen, A., & Jalovaara, M. (2020). Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births. Advances in Life Course Research, 43, 100320.
  • Norrbäck, M., Tynelius, P., Ahlström, G., & Rasmussen, F. (2019). The association of mobility disability and obesity with risk of unemployment in two cohorts from Sweden. BMC public health, 19(1), 347.
  • Nusair, S. A. (2020). The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the US. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 21, e00153.
  • Onwachukwu, C. I., & Okagbue, E. F. (2019). Unemployment effect of WTO ascension: Evidence from a natural experiment. International Economics, 159, 48-55.
  • Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M., & Cuestas, J. C. (2019). Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181, 625-634.
  • Park, T., & Reeves, A. (2020). Local unemployment and voting for president: uncovering causal mechanisms. Political Behavior, 42(2), 443-463
  • Petrosky-Nadeau, N., & Zhang, L. (2020). Unemployment crises. Journal of Monetary Economics.
  • Pierse, T., & McHale, J. (2020). Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions. Applied Economics, 52(19), 2109- 2122.
  • Pieters, J., & Rawlings, S. (2020). Parental unemployment and child health in China. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(1), 207-237.
  • Pohlan, L. (2019). Unemployment and social exclusion. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 164, 273-299.
  • Pompei, F., & Selezneva, E. (2019). Unemployment and education mismatch in the EU before and after the financial crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling.
  • Recher, V. (2020). Unemployment and property crime: evidence from Croatia. Crime, Law and Social Change, 73(3), 357-376.
  • Rhee, H. J., & Song, J. (2020). Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 88, 244-262.
  • Ronchetti, J., & Terriau, A. (2019). Impact of unemployment on self-perceived health. The European Journal of Health Economics, 20(6), 879- 889.
  • Sansale, R., DeLoach, S. B., & Kurt, M. (2019). Unemployment duration and the personalities of young adults workers. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 79, 1-11.
  • Schmillen, A. (2019). Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career. Empirical Economics, 57(3), 805-838.
  • Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 103202.
  • Sheldon, G. (2020). Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 156(1), 1-9.
  • Sibande, X., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2019). Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 49, 81-88.
  • Siregar, T. H. (2020). Impacts of minimum wages on employment and unemployment in Indonesia. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 25(1), 62-78.
  • Triaca, L. M., Jacinto, P. D. A., França, M. T. A., & Tejada, C. A. O. (2020). Does greater unemployment make people thinner in Brazil?. Health Economics
  • Tüzemen, D. (2019). Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
  • Voßemer, J. (2019). The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 379-401.
  • Wilczyńska, A., Batorski, D., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2020). Precarious Knowledge Work? The Combined Effect of Occupational Unemployment and Flexible Employment on Job Insecurity. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11(1), 281-304
  • World Development Indicators, (2020). Retrieved April 15, 2020, from http://wdi.worldbank.org/tables
  • Yavorsky, J. E., & Dill, J. (2020). Unemployment and men's entrance into female-dominated jobs. Social Science Research, 85, 102373.

Cite this article

    APA : Niazi, A. A. K., Qazi, T. F., & Basit, A. (2021). Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries. Global Regional Review, VI(I), 23-35. https://doi.org/10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04
    CHICAGO : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. 2021. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI (I): 23-35 doi: 10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04
    HARVARD : NIAZI, A. A. K., QAZI, T. F. & BASIT, A. 2021. Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries. Global Regional Review, VI, 23-35.
    MHRA : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. 2021. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI: 23-35
    MLA : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI.I (2021): 23-35 Print.
    OXFORD : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Qazi, Tehmina Fiaz, and Basit, Abdul (2021), "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries", Global Regional Review, VI (I), 23-35
    TURABIAN : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review VI, no. I (2021): 23-35. https://doi.org/10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04