Abstract
The purpose of the study is to gauge the unemployment level of selected one hundred and thirteen countries. The design of the study includes a survey of the literature, extraction of relevant data and analysis. The study follows a quantitative paradigm of research that uses secondary data set taken from the website of World Development Indicators (WDI). The analysis encompasses selected countries based on the availability of data. The data has been analyzed using Grey Incidence Analysis Model, commonly known as GRA. For interpretation of the results, the methodology has been augmented with the scheme of ensigns (i.e. classification of countries into Extremely Low, Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extremely High) of the level of unemployment. Results show that J&APR have an extremely low level of unemployment and member countries of SADC have an extremely high level of unemployment. Pakistan fall under the ensign of very low, therefore have a low level of unemployment. It is valuable to study equally useful for governments, academia and the international community. This study provides critical new information on the phenomenon.
Key Words
Unemployment, Grey Incidence Analysis Model, GRA, Pakistan
Introduction
Sustenance is the foremost on the list of human activities. Employment is one of the mediums to accomplish the activity of sustenance. The political governments being legitimate representatives of citizens of the country, are the most concerned stakeholders of the level of employment in a country. Unemployment is the direct question of deprivation of sustenance—higher the level of unemployment questions the very existence of political government. The phenomenon of unemployment attracts great attention of governments and is always a worthy research topic. Governments strive to keep the level of unemployment as low as possible. Evaluation of the country’s unemployment level as against the rest of the world is an evergreen area of analysis. There is no dearth of research studies on unemployment; admittedly, there is an influx of literature. Cappelli et al. (2020) analyzed 248 European Union regions to investigate the impact on unemployment during the 2008 crises and measured economic and technological resilience; the study showed that technological resilience is a better predictor of unemployment resistance. Doppelt (2019) proposed a macroeconomic model discussing in detail the human capital in relation to unemployment. Hall and Zoega (2020) bolstered that better bargaining power and unemployment benefits have a significant effect on escalating leisure enjoyment and dipping employment in Europe. In addition to this, the unemployment benefit has raised the 12% layoff probability (Albanese et al. 2020). Onwachukwu and Okagbue (2019) gathered data from 175 countries for the period of 1991-2017 and stated that the countries that joined World Trade Organization (WTO) between 2011-2017 had the lowest unemployment as compared to the countries joined between 1995-1999 and 2000-2010. Pohlan (2019) uncovered some social (life satisfaction & social integration perception) and economic (access to economic resources) consequences of unemployment. Rhee and Song (2020) concluded that nominal wage rigidities result in an increase in real wages and unemployment. Sibande et al. (2019) analyzed data from 1855 to 2017 and found it insignificant in the direction of unemployment to UK stock market returns, significant in opposite and bi-direction. In view of the representation, the apropos aim of the study is to evaluate the level of unemployment of one hundred thirteen countries, compare it on the basis of grey relational grades, classify the countries according to the level of unemployment prevailing in thereof and discuss the results of the model. For achieving these objectives multitude of methodologies were considered that include SEM, GMM, ISM, DEA, GRA etc. Grey Incidence Analysis Model (commonly known as GRA) was found to be the most appropriate methodology. It was also considered to opt for different types of available data sets on the unemployment level, and the data set available on the website of WDI is considered to be most appropriate and reliable. Therefore, the study uses GRA as a methodology and data set of WDI for achieving its objectives. The study is arranged as section one ‘introduction’, section two ‘literature review’, section three ‘methodology’, section four ‘results & discussion’ and section five ‘concluding remarks.
Literature Review
Avalanche of contemporary studies is available on unemployment across the globe including: unemployment and incubation center in Nigeria (Akanle & Omotayo, 2020), unemployment statistics in South Africa (Alenda-Demoutiez & Mügge, 2020), identified major determinants of unemployment in Colombia (Arango & Flórez, 2020), association of unemployment with human capital loss and suicide rate in Italy (Bagliano et al., 2019; Mattei & Pistoresi, 2019), empirical findings of unemployment in an open economy of 18 OECD countries (Bertinelli et al., 2020; Khraief et al., 2020), local unemployment and health in Ireland (Briody et al., 2020), coal-fired power stations closure and local unemployment in Australia (Burke et al., 2019), perseverance of unemployment rate over past century in US and UK (Cho & Rho, 2019), policy reforms of zero level unemployment benefits in Belgium (Cockx et al., 2020), unemployment benefits and experience in East Asia (Hwang, 2019), affects of financial development and energy sources on unemployment in Egypt (Ibrahiem & Sameh, 2020), examine technology perception and its relation to unemployment in Gulf (Jaradat et al., 2020), hysteresis in unemployment for G7 countries as of 1980-2017 (Jiang et al., 2019), effects of unemployment benefits in Finland (Kyyrä & Pesola, 2020), impact of parental unemployment in educational transition in Germany (Lindemann & Gangl, 2019), impacts of oil prices variation on unemployment in US and Canada (Kocaaslan, 2019; Nusair, 2020), impact of unemployment on infant health in Japan (Kohara et al., 2019), impact of obesity and mobility disability on unemployment in Sweden (Norrbäck et al., 2019), effects of oil price changes on unemployment in Spain (Ordóñez et al., 2019), impact of local unemployment on Presidential election in Qatar (Park & Reeves, 2020), unemployment rate in Great Depression in USA (Petrosky-Nadeau & Zhang, 2020), unemployment spells and local labour market conditions in different districts of UK (Pierse & McHale, 2020), parental unemployment and child health in China (Pieters & Rawlings, 2020), unemployment in Europe before and after financial crises (Pompei & Selezneva, 2019), unemployment and property crime in Croatia (Recher, 2020), unemployment affects on self-perceived health in France (Ronchetti & Terriau, 2019), unemployment rate trend in Turkey (Sengul & Tasci, 2020), unemployment in Switzerland during in time of COVID-19 (Sheldon, 2020), impact of lower wages on unemployment/employment in Indonesia (Siregar, 2020), unemployment causes overweight, obesity and over obesity in Brazil (Triaca et al., 2020), impact of unemployment on non-monetary quality of job in Europe (Voßemer, 2019).
Bauer and Weber (2020) stated that the shutdown in Germany during the COVID-19 period caused 60% (117,000 persons) unemployment in April as compared to inflows in employment. Blustein et al. (2020) highlighted the global unemployment crisis evoked by the COVID-19 outbreak and also uncovered how that unemployment catastrophe has been different from preceding unemployment phases.
Theoretical Framework and Variable Specification
Gender
Albanesi and
?ahin (2018) stated that the male-female unemployment gap and
disparity between their unemployment rates was positive till the early 1980s,
and later in 1983, this gap moved out except during the period of recessions. Fa?oš and Bohdalová (2019) analyzed gender inequality in relation to the unemployment rate for 27
countries of the European Union between 2005-2017 and found mixed results. Longhi (2020) conducted a longitudinal study on ethnic unemployment differentials in the UK with a special focus on
Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Indian black the Caribbean and black African men and
women in comparison to white British men and women and revealed a higher
unemployment rate in ethnic minorities as compared to white British men and
women. Similar study and findings have also been carried out by Li & Heath (2020). Tüzemen
(2019) asserted
that gender, age and skill have changed the determinants of the unemployment
rate in the US, which was declined by 0.5% in 1994, by 4.5% at the end of 2017
and project 4.4% more decline rate at the end of 2022. Yavorsky and
Dill (2020)
proclaimed that unemployment causes men to enter into a female-dominated job at
the expense of occupational prestige and wages.
Youth
Clark and Lepinteur (2019) examined the adult experience of unemployment from
the age they left education up to 30 years age. Dvouletý et
al. (2020)
identified that along with ethnic background, education, age and gender, others
factors such as the parental experience of unemployment, taking a risk, and
religious attachment are pertinent determinants of young adults’ unemployment. Görmü? (2019) argued that desire to work full time, lack of work
experience & qualification, semi skill occupations are the major
determinants of long-term youth unemployment. Liotti
(2020) concluded
that economic crises had a severe impact on youth and adult unemployment from
2001-2006 in 20 Italian regions. Johansson et al. (2019) carried a study on adolescents in 27 countries across 2001/2002,
2005/2006, 2009/2010; and found lower adolescent life satisfaction in higher
national unemployment rate countries. Sansale et
al. (2019)
asserted that the role of personality has a major determinant in
employment/unemployment among young adults between 2008-2015 in the USA.
Education
Lehti et al. (2019); Lindemann and Gangl (2019); Pieters and Rawlings (2020) found that parental unemployment impacts siblings’
educational outcomes, educational transition and child health. Miettinen
and Jalovaara (2020)
affirmed that education strongly modified the relationship between unemployment
and parenthood transition both among men and women in a similar manner. Schmillen
(2019) collected
data from more than 800,000 graduates of vocational education over the period
of 25 years and concluded that vocational education has a significant economic
and statistical impact on unemployment that of professional career. Wilczy?ska et al.
(2020) proclaimed
that occupational unemployment has no effect on permanent workers but has an
adverse effect on temporary knowledge workers.
Table 1. Variables’ Specification
Code |
Variable to Assess
Unemployment |
Measure |
Criteria |
1 |
Unemployment Male |
% of mlf |
Minimum acceptable |
2 |
Unemployment Female |
% of flf |
Minimum acceptable |
3 |
Unemployment Youth Male |
% of mlf * ages 15-24 |
Minimum acceptable |
4 |
Unemployment Youth Female |
% of flf ** ages 15-24 |
Minimum acceptable |
5 |
Unemployment with basic education |
% of tlf *** with basic education |
Minimum acceptable |
6 |
Unemployment with intermediate education |
% of tlf *** with intermediate education |
Minimum acceptable |
7 |
Unemployment with advanced education |
% of tlf *** with advanced education |
Minimum acceptable |
*Male labor force, **female labor force, and ***
total labor force
Readers will
find ensigns information extremely helpful in forming an informed opinion
regarding a country’s health system.
Methodology
The
philosophical foundations of this study are more titled towards positivism. It
is a deductive study using a cross-sectional time horizon based on archival
secondary data. It is a mono method mathematical type of research study. The
design of the study consists of a critical survey of relevant literature
available in the databases like ScienceDirect, Emerald, Wiley Blackwell, Taylor
& Springer, Francis etc., extraction of data from the website of WDI and
analysis. A complete data set of 113 countries on seven different variables
were found available on the apropos website. Therefore, this study is envisaged
on the analysis of 113 countries with 7 variables. The study employs Grey
Incidence Analysis Model, commonly known as Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) (Uckun et al.,
2012). GRA progresses stepwise (Hamzacebi et al., 2011; Kuo et el., 2008;
Tayyar et al., 2014; Wu, 2002, Zhai et al., 2009). GRA has the capability to
evaluate, analyze and compare alternatives against the cross-sections. The data
was extracted from the website in MS excel format, and GRA progressed stepwise
using MS excel (formula prompt). However, since the analysis involves long
tables, therefore, stepwise representation in this study is given by using the
skip row technique.
Grey Incidence Analysis
Model
The
classical steps of GRA are used to implement the model
Step
One
Original
dataset for decision matrix
(1)
Table 2. Statistics of
Unemployment
S. No |
Country |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
2 |
Albania |
15 |
13 |
33 |
27 |
14 |
20 |
19 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
2 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
80 |
Panama |
3 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
25 |
51 |
41 |
72 |
24 |
25 |
33 |
113 |
Zambia |
8 |
7 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
7 |
Source: (WDI 2020)
Step
Two
Incorporated
reference and created comparison matrix:
(2)
Table 3. Reference Series with
Comparable Series
S. No |
Country |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
Reference Sequence |
0.6 |
0.60 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
1.1 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
2 |
Albania |
15 |
13 |
33 |
27 |
14 |
20 |
19 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
2.4 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
8.3 |
3.9 |
5.6 |
7.1 |
80 |
Panama |
3.2 |
5.1 |
8.2 |
13 |
3.2 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
25 |
51 |
41 |
72 |
24 |
25 |
33 |
113 |
Zambia |
7.5 |
6.9 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
7 |
Step
Three
Normalized
the data by using the following equation (3)
(i.e. formula for normalization of data possessing the characteristic ‘minimum acceptable’.
(3)
Table 4. Normalization of Values
S. No |
Country |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
Reference |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
0.9795 |
0.9643 |
0.9808 |
0.9647 |
0.6481 |
0.4659 |
0.5296 |
2 |
Albania |
0.4098 |
0.7540 |
0.3205 |
0.6356 |
0.5864 |
0.3226 |
0.4361 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
0.9262 |
0.9107 |
0.9124 |
0.8997 |
0.8981 |
0.8387 |
0.8069 |
80 |
Panama |
0.8934 |
0.9107 |
0.8504 |
0.8333 |
0.9198 |
0.8423 |
0.9283 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.1496 |
0.0000 |
0.2778 |
0.1434 |
0.0000 |
113 |
Zambia |
0.7172 |
0.8750 |
0.6838 |
0.7910 |
0.6790 |
0.5376 |
0.8100 |
To illustrate the calculation of Afghanistan
‘unemployment male.’
Step
Four
Obtained absolute values by calculating
deviation sequence.
(4)
For
the highest deviation following equation is used:
(5)
For
the lowest deviation following equation is used:
(6)
Table 5. Deviation Sequence
S. No |
Country |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
Reference |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
0.0000 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
0.0205 |
0.0357 |
0.0192 |
0.0353 |
0.3519 |
0.5341 |
0.4704 |
2 |
Albania |
0.5902 |
0.2460 |
0.6795 |
0.3644 |
0.4136 |
0.6774 |
0.5639 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
0.0738 |
0.0893 |
0.0876 |
0.1003 |
0.1019 |
0.1613 |
0.1931 |
80 |
Panama |
0.1066 |
0.0893 |
0.1496 |
0.1667 |
0.0802 |
0.1577 |
0.0717 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
0.8504 |
1.0000 |
0.7222 |
0.8566 |
1.0000 |
113 |
Zambia |
0.2828 |
0.1250 |
0.3162 |
0.2090 |
0.3210 |
0.4624 |
0.1900 |
To
illustrate the calculation of deviation for ‘unemployment, female.’
Step
Five
Grey
relational co-efficient is determined on the basis of normalized sequences. The
term is
distinguishing-co-efficient between 0 to1. Its usual is value 0.5 in
literature.
(7)
Table 6. Grey-Relational
Co-efficient
S.
No |
Country |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
0 |
Reference |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
0.9606 |
0.9333 |
0.9630 |
0.9340 |
0.5870 |
0.4835 |
0.5152 |
2 |
Albania |
0.4586 |
0.6702 |
0.4239 |
0.5784 |
0.5473 |
0.4247 |
0.4700 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
0.8714 |
0.8485 |
0.8509 |
0.8329 |
0.8308 |
0.7561 |
0.7213 |
80 |
Panama |
0.8243 |
0.8485 |
0.7697 |
0.7500 |
0.8617 |
0.7602 |
0.8747 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
0.3333 |
0.3333 |
0.3703 |
0.3333 |
0.4091 |
0.3686 |
0.3333 |
113 |
Zambia |
0.6387 |
0.8000 |
0.6126 |
0.7052 |
0.6090 |
0.5196 |
0.7246 |
To
illustrate reckoning of “Grey Relational
Co-efficient” for ‘Unemployment, female’ (2) To Albania
Step
Six
Worked
out the weighted sum of “grey relational co-efficient” commonly known in the
literature as “Grey Relational Grade” (8)
and (9):
(8)
(9)
Table 7. Grey Relational Grades
(GRGs)
S. No |
Country |
GRGs |
0 |
Reference |
1.0000 |
1 |
Afghanistan |
0.7681 |
2 |
Albania |
0.5104 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
79 |
Pakistan |
0.8160 |
80 |
Panama |
0.8127 |
… |
………. |
… |
… |
………. |
… |
112 |
West Bank and Gaza |
0.3545 |
113 |
Zambia |
0.6585 |
To illustrate
grey relational grade for Albania
Scheme of
Classification of Countries
In order to appropriately
express and represent the country-level results of the apropos analysis, a
scheme of ensigns have been introduced (Niazi
et al. 2020). This scheme is designed on a continuum of low to high distributed
into 7 items (i.e. extremely low, very low, low, moderate, high, very
high and extremely high). The scheme of ensigns makes the results of the
grey incidence analysis model more meaningful, understandable, interpretable
and comparable. This scheme also facilitated by way of bearing brackets of grey
relational grades against the scale item. The number of countries has been
grouped into stakes by dividing the total number of countries into total scale
items Table 8.
Table 8. Scheme of Classification
of Countries under Ensigns
S.
No |
Ensign |
Grey Relational Grade |
Explanation |
Extremely
Low |
0.8408 -0.9884 |
Extremely
Low Level of Unemployment |
|
2 |
Very Low |
0.8081-0.8399 |
Very Low
Level of Unemployment |
3 |
Low |
0.7637-0.8067 |
Low Level of
Unemployment |
4 |
Moderate |
0.7146 -0.7534 |
Moderate
Level of Unemployment |
5 |
High |
0.6419 -0.7086 |
High Level
of Unemployment |
6 |
Very High |
0.5240-0.6398 |
Very High
Level of Unemployment |
7 |
Extremely
High |
0.3545 -0.5122 |
Extremely
High Level of Unemployment |
Approximately sixteen countries are grouped against every scale item on
the basis of scheme readers can establish a more informed opinion about
Results and Discussion
Result
Unemployment is ever a current problem of political
governments the countries. Sustenance is the foremost activity of human being,
so; therefore, a country level evaluation, analysis and comparison of levels of
unemployment is agenda of high importance. The contemporary literature is not
much fertile in evaluation, analysis and comparison of unemployment among
countries. One can hardly find a comparative study. Therefore, this study aimed
to investigate the phenomenon. It addresses the issue in a novel way using a
secondary set of data of a multitude of criteria and with a different type of
methodology. Using
the GRA (i.e. mathematical technique of data analysis with the capability of
handling a multitude of variables, cases and time periods), the study has
categorized 113 countries into seven categories (Table 8).
Table 9. Results of GRA
Country |
*GRGs |
Rank |
Country |
*GRGs |
Rank |
Country |
*GRGs |
Rank |
Reference |
1.0000 |
0 |
Switzerland |
0.7936 |
38 |
Uruguay |
0.6791 |
77 |
Extremely
Low |
El Salvador |
0.7913 |
39 |
Slovak Republic |
0.6715 |
78 |
||
Cambodia |
0.9884 |
1 |
Poland |
0.7907 |
40 |
Finland |
0.6691 |
79 |
Thailand |
0.9715 |
2 |
Denmark |
0.7872 |
41 |
Cyprus |
0.6618 |
80 |
Myanmar |
0.9418 |
3 |
Paraguay |
0.7869 |
42 |
Very
High |
||
Macao SAR, China |
0.9148 |
4 |
Timor-Leste |
0.7862 |
43 |
Zambia |
0.6585 |
81 |
Vietnam |
0.8902 |
5 |
Romania |
0.7844 |
44 |
Nigeria |
0.6557 |
82 |
Madagascar |
0.8890 |
6 |
Austria |
0.7810 |
45 |
Malawi |
0.6459 |
83 |
Iceland |
0.8665 |
7 |
Fiji |
0.7753 |
46 |
Costa Rica |
0.6455 |
84 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
0.8656 |
8 |
Afghanistan |
0.7681 |
47 |
Colombia |
0.6419 |
85 |
Lao PDR |
0.8597 |
9 |
Slovenia |
0.7674 |
48 |
Ukraine |
0.6398 |
86 |
Guatemala |
0.8574 |
10 |
Moderate |
Argentina |
0.6351 |
87 |
||
United Arab Emirates |
0.8515 |
11 |
Mozambique |
0.7645 |
49 |
Croatia |
0.6346 |
88 |
Liberia |
0.8515 |
12 |
Rwanda |
0.7640 |
50 |
France |
0.6328 |
89 |
Czech Republic |
0.8499 |
13 |
Honduras |
0.7637 |
51 |
Mali |
0.6207 |
90 |
Hong Kong SAR, China |
0.8496 |
14 |
Indonesia |
0.7534 |
52 |
Brunei Darussalam |
0.6140 |
91 |
Mexico |
0.8456 |
15 |
Estonia |
0.7513 |
53 |
Samoa |
0.6114 |
92 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
0.8408 |
16 |
Bulgaria |
0.7469 |
54 |
Turkey |
0.6006 |
93 |
Very
Low |
Ghana |
0.7422 |
55 |
Guyana |
0.5994 |
94 |
||
Germany |
0.8408 |
17 |
India |
0.7411 |
56 |
Cabo Verde |
0.5992 |
95 |
Moldova |
0.8399 |
18 |
Luxembourg |
0.7396 |
57 |
Italy |
0.5939 |
96 |
Netherlands |
0.8326 |
19 |
Bangladesh |
0.7395 |
58 |
Extremely
High |
||
Bolivia |
0.8300 |
20 |
Mongolia |
0.7379 |
59 |
Brazil |
0.5688 |
97 |
Uganda |
0.8291 |
21 |
Belarus |
0.7333 |
60 |
Georgia |
0.5463 |
98 |
Peru |
0.8264 |
22 |
Dominican Republic |
0.7332 |
61 |
Serbia |
0.5446 |
99 |
Kazakhstan |
0.8251 |
23 |
Russian Federation |
0.7322 |
62 |
Iran, Islamic Rep. |
0.5344 |
100 |
Singapore |
0.8238 |
24 |
Ireland |
0.7319 |
63 |
Egypt, Arab Rep. |
0.5334 |
101 |
Malaysia |
0.8229 |
25 |
Canada |
0.7270 |
64 |
Montenegro |
0.5240 |
102 |
Korea, Rep. |
0.8218 |
26 |
High |
Spain |
0.5122 |
103 |
||
Pakistan |
0.8160 |
27 |
Maldives |
0.7266 |
65 |
Albania |
0.5104 |
104 |
Malta |
0.8157 |
28 |
Sri Lanka |
0.7219 |
66 |
Tunisia |
0.4943 |
105 |
United States |
0.8149 |
29 |
Kenya |
0.7189 |
67 |
Armenia |
0.4740 |
106 |
Ecuador |
0.8136 |
30 |
Lithuania |
0.7146 |
68 |
Greece |
0.4567 |
107 |
Panama |
0.8127 |
31 |
Belgium |
0.7086 |
69 |
Namibia |
0.4458 |
108 |
Hungary |
0.8112 |
32 |
Sweden |
0.6999 |
70 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
0.4438 |
109 |
Low |
Senegal |
0.6918 |
71 |
Eswatini |
0.4342 |
110 |
||
Norway |
0.8081 |
33 |
Portugal |
0.6892 |
72 |
North Macedonia |
0.4342 |
111 |
Nepal |
0.8081 |
34 |
Mauritius |
0.6883 |
73 |
South Africa |
0.3964 |
112 |
Israel |
0.8067 |
35 |
Chile |
0.6870 |
74 |
West Bank and Gaza |
0.3545 |
113 |
Philippines |
0.8021 |
36 |
Latvia |
0.6830 |
75 |
|
|
|
United Kingdom |
0.8000 |
37 |
Belize |
0.6803 |
76 |
|
|
|
*Grey
Relational Grades=GRGs
The result of
the analysis shows that there are a total of sixteen countries categorized as
countries having extremely low unemployment. Most of the countries under
this ensign of classification are member countries of Japan & the Asian
Pacific Rim (J&APR). Sixteen under the very low ensign, most of
which are member countries of APEC and OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of low,
most of which are member countries of OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of moderate,
most of which are member countries of APEC, Eastern Europe (EE), European Union
(EU), OECD and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Sixteen under the ensign of high, most of which are member countries of
OECD. Sixteen under the ensign of very high, most of which are member
countries of EU, OECD and Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). Seventeen
under the ensign of extremely high, most of which are member-countries
South African Development Community (SADC). Pakistan fall under the ensign of very
low therefore has low unemployment.
Discussion
The
main objective of the study is to represent a country level comparative
analysis of the unemployment of 113 countries. This study is different from
contemporary literature on many different counts, e.g. in data set, in
methodological choice, number of countries subject to analysis, in
classification and presentation of results and selection of variables. The
results of the study, in general, are pretty aligned with the results of
contemporary research studies. For enrichment of understanding of the readers,
a comparative analysis of relevant studies is given as Table 9.
Table 10.
Comparison with Existing
Literature
Study |
Focus
of Study |
Factors/Variables |
Methodology |
Result |
Current study |
Evaluation of the level of unemployment in 113 countries.
|
GRA |
J&APR countries have
extremely low, SADC countries have extremely high whereas Pakistan has a low
level of unemployment |
|
Examine the relationship
between youth and adult in relation to unemployment and demographic |
Work experience, desire
to work a full-time job, lack of qualification, inter-regional disparities in
the context of economic development, semi-skill occupation, youth, adult and
unemployment. |
Logistic regression |
Desire to work full time, lack of work experience
& qualification, semi skill occupations are the major determinants of
long-term youth unemployment. |
|
Examine the role of
personality among young adults in unemployment duration |
Married female, female,
married, age, black, high school degree, associate’s degree and bachelor’s
degree |
Competing risk model |
Personality has a major determinant in
employment/unemployment among young adults. |
|
Educational differences
and employment uncertainty |
Employment status,
income and cohabiting union data |
Constant exponential
model |
Education modified the
relationship between unemployment and parenthood transition both in female
and male in the same way. |
|
Yavorsky and Dill (2020) |
Men’s entrance into
female-dominated job and unemployment |
Percent wage change,
change in occupation prestige, unemployment and female-dominated occupation. |
Logistic regression and
linear regression |
Unemployment causes men to enter into
female-dominated job. |
Contemporary studies use traditional statistical models and conventional
variables to measure unemployment in the limited scope of one or few countries
on different archival data sets. The results of the study, therefore, give very
limited insights into the phenomenon. The study in hand gives relatively more
compressive and precise insights, particularly on comparison of countries and
blocs.
Concluding Remarks
The level of unemployment in a country is a deep concern of stakeholders. From time to time, country-level comparative analysis of the level of unemployment is the call of the day. Therefore, the problem under investigation is evaluation analysis and comparison of unemployment level in 113 countries. An extensive literature review has been done before embarking on any analysis. The analysis has been performed by stepwise implementing grey incidence analysis model on country level secondary data of variables like unemployment, gender, youth and education. The result shows that member countries of J&APR has extremely low unemployment and accordingly that of APEC & OECD very low, EE & SAARC moderate, some of OECD high, EU, OECD & UNASUR very high and member countries of SADC have an extremely high level of unemployment. Pakistan fall under the ensign of very low, therefore has low unemployment. This study has a novel theoretical and practical contribution to the literature. It has contributed a ranking of 113 countries along with grey relational grades. It also contributed a classification of these countries on the continuum of an ordinal scale of low to a high level of unemployment and provided new insights and information. This study also has practical implications for political government, policymakers, society at large, and researchers in mainstream economist by way of developing an informed understanding of the country level position of unemployment. Firstly, it is a cross-sectional secondary data-based study and subjects the limitations attached to this type of designs. Longitudinal design and/or primary data set may be employed in future. Secondly, the study uses Grey Incidence Analysis Model based on normalized data that might have lost some properties; therefore,, it is recommended to validate the results through some statistical methodology. Thirdly, the study uses equal weights for the variables for simplicity; however,, future research can use an the analytical hierarchy process or entropy method for giving weights to the variables. Fourthly, the data set used has been taken from the website of WDI, and the generalization of the results are subject to the precision of data, therefore, it is recommended to validate the results by using different dataset in a similar type of model. Lastly, the study investigated the phenomenon with 113 alternatives and seven criteria; therefore, it is recommended to increase alternatives and/or a number of criteria.
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- Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M., & Cuestas, J. C. (2019). Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181, 625-634.
- Park, T., & Reeves, A. (2020). Local unemployment and voting for president: uncovering causal mechanisms. Political Behavior, 42(2), 443-463
- Petrosky-Nadeau, N., & Zhang, L. (2020). Unemployment crises. Journal of Monetary Economics.
- Pierse, T., & McHale, J. (2020). Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions. Applied Economics, 52(19), 2109- 2122.
- Pieters, J., & Rawlings, S. (2020). Parental unemployment and child health in China. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(1), 207-237.
- Pohlan, L. (2019). Unemployment and social exclusion. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 164, 273-299.
- Pompei, F., & Selezneva, E. (2019). Unemployment and education mismatch in the EU before and after the financial crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling.
- Recher, V. (2020). Unemployment and property crime: evidence from Croatia. Crime, Law and Social Change, 73(3), 357-376.
- Rhee, H. J., & Song, J. (2020). Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 88, 244-262.
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- Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 103202.
- Sheldon, G. (2020). Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 156(1), 1-9.
- Sibande, X., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2019). Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 49, 81-88.
- Siregar, T. H. (2020). Impacts of minimum wages on employment and unemployment in Indonesia. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 25(1), 62-78.
- Triaca, L. M., Jacinto, P. D. A., França, M. T. A., & Tejada, C. A. O. (2020). Does greater unemployment make people thinner in Brazil?. Health Economics
- Tüzemen, D. (2019). Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
- Voßemer, J. (2019). The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 379-401.
- Wilczyńska, A., Batorski, D., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2020). Precarious Knowledge Work? The Combined Effect of Occupational Unemployment and Flexible Employment on Job Insecurity. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11(1), 281-304
- World Development Indicators, (2020). Retrieved April 15, 2020, from http://wdi.worldbank.org/tables
- Yavorsky, J. E., & Dill, J. (2020). Unemployment and men's entrance into female-dominated jobs. Social Science Research, 85, 102373.
- Akanle, O., & Omotayo, A. (2020). Youth, unemployment and incubation hubs in Southwest Nigeria. African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, 12(2), 165-172.
- Albanese, A., Picchio, M., & Ghirelli, C. (2020). Timed to say goodbye: Does unemployment benefit eligibility affect worker layoffs?. Labour Economics, 101846.
- Albanesi, S., & Şahin, A. (2018). The gender unemployment gap. Review of Economic Dynamics, 30, 47-67.
- Alenda-Demoutiez, J., & Mügge, D. (2020). The lure of ill-fitting unemployment statistics: How South Africa's discouraged work seekers disappeared from the unemployment rate. New Political Economy, 25(4), 590-606.
- Arango, L. E., & Flórez, L. A. (2020). Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach. Empirical Economics, 58(5), 2431-2464.
- Bagliano, F. C., Fugazza, C., & Nicodano, G. (2019). Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 325- 340
- Bauer, A., & Weber, E. (2020). COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?. Applied Economics Letters, 1-6.
- Bertinelli, L., Cardi, O., & Restout, R. (2020). Relative productivity and search unemployment in an open economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 103938.
- Blustein, D. L., Duffy, R., Ferreira, J. A., CohenScali, V., Cinamon, R. G., & Allan, B. A. (2020). Unemployment in the time of COVID19: A research agenda. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 119
- Briody, J., Doyle, O., & Kelleher, C. (2020). The effect of local unemployment on health: A longitudinal study of Irish mothers 2001- 2011. Economics & Human Biology, 37, 100859.
- Burke, P. J., Best, R., & Jotzo, F. (2019). Closures of coalâ€Âfired power stations in Australia: local unemployment effects. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 63(1), 142- 165.
- Cappelli, R., Montobbio, F., & Morrison, A. (2020). Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1-32.
- Cho, D., & Rho, S. (2019). Time variation in the persistence of unemployment over the past century. Economics Letters, 182, 19-22.
- Clark, A. E., & Lepinteur, A. (2019). The causes and consequences of early-adult unemployment: Evidence from cohort data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 166, 107-124.
- Cockx, B., Declercq, K., Dejemeppe, M., Inga, L., & Van der Linden, B. (2020). Switching from an inclining to a zero-level unemployment benefit profile: Good for work incentives?. Labour Economics, 101816.
- Doppelt, R. (2019). Skill flows: A theory of human capital and unemployment. Review of Economic Dynamics, 31, 84-122.
- Dvouletý, O., Lukeš, M., & Vancea, M. (2020). Individual-level and family background determinants of young adults' unemployment in Europe. Empirica, 47(2), 389-409.
- FaÄÂoÅ¡, M., & Bohdalová, M. (2019). Unemployment gender inequality: evidence from the 27 European Union countries. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(3), 349-371.
- Görmüş, A. (2019). Long-Term Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Turkish Household Labour Force Survey. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 62(3), 341-359.
- Hall, A., & Zoega, G. (2020). Welfare, leisure and unemployment. Economics Letters, 109277.
- Hwang, G. J. (2019). How fair are unemployment benefits? The experience of East Asia. International Social Security Review, 72(2), 49-73.
- Ibrahiem, D. M., & Sameh, R. (2020). How do clean energy sources and financial development affect unemployment? Empirical evidence from Egypt. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-10.
- Jaradat, M., Jibreel, M., & Skaik, H. (2020). Individuals' perceptions of technology and its relationship with ambition, unemployment, loneliness and insomnia in the Gulf. Technology in Society, 60, 101199.
- Jiang, Y., Cai, Y., Peng, Y. T., & Chang, T. (2019). Testing hysteresis in unemployment in G7 countries using quantile unit root test with both sharp shifts and smooth breaks. Social Indicators Research, 142(3), 1211-1229.
- Johansson, K., Petersen, S., Högberg, B., Stevens, G. W., De Clercq, B., Frasquilho, D., ... & Strandh, M. (2019). The interplay between national and parental unemployment in relation to adolescent life satisfaction in 27 countries: analyses of repeated cross-sectional school surveys. BMC public health, 19(1), 1555
- Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati, A., & Azam, M. (2020). Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 100838.
- Kocaaslan, O. K. (2019). Oil price uncertainty and unemployment. Energy Economics, 81, 577-583.
- Kohara, M., Matsushima, M., & Ohtake, F. (2019). Effect of unemployment on infant health. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 68- 77.
- Kyyrä, T., & Pesola, H. (2020). The Effects of Unemployment Benefit Duration: Evidence from Residual Benefit Duration. Labour Economics, 101859.
- Lehti, H., Erola, J., & Karhula, A. (2019). The heterogeneous effects of parental unemployment on siblings' educational outcomes. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 64, 100439.
- Li, Y., & Heath, A. (2020). Persisting disadvantages: a study of labour market dynamics of ethnic unemployment and earnings in the UK (2009- 2015). Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46(5), 857-878.
- Lindemann, K., & Gangl, M. (2019). The intergenerational effects of unemployment: How parental unemployment affects educational transitions in Germany. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 62, 100410.
- Liotti, G. (2020). Labour market flexibility, economic crisis and youth unemployment in Italy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.
- Longhi, S. (2020). A longitudinal analysis of ethnic unemployment differentials in the UK. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46(5), 879-892.
- Mattei, G., & Pistoresi, B. (2019). Unemployment and suicide in Italy: evidence of a long-run association mitigated by public unemployment spending. The European Journal of Health Economics, 20(4), 569-577.
- Miettinen, A., & Jalovaara, M. (2020). Unemployment delays first birth but not for all. Life stage and educational differences in the effects of employment uncertainty on first births. Advances in Life Course Research, 43, 100320.
- Norrbäck, M., Tynelius, P., Ahlström, G., & Rasmussen, F. (2019). The association of mobility disability and obesity with risk of unemployment in two cohorts from Sweden. BMC public health, 19(1), 347.
- Nusair, S. A. (2020). The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the US. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 21, e00153.
- Onwachukwu, C. I., & Okagbue, E. F. (2019). Unemployment effect of WTO ascension: Evidence from a natural experiment. International Economics, 159, 48-55.
- Ordóñez, J., Monfort, M., & Cuestas, J. C. (2019). Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain. Energy, 181, 625-634.
- Park, T., & Reeves, A. (2020). Local unemployment and voting for president: uncovering causal mechanisms. Political Behavior, 42(2), 443-463
- Petrosky-Nadeau, N., & Zhang, L. (2020). Unemployment crises. Journal of Monetary Economics.
- Pierse, T., & McHale, J. (2020). Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions. Applied Economics, 52(19), 2109- 2122.
- Pieters, J., & Rawlings, S. (2020). Parental unemployment and child health in China. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(1), 207-237.
- Pohlan, L. (2019). Unemployment and social exclusion. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 164, 273-299.
- Pompei, F., & Selezneva, E. (2019). Unemployment and education mismatch in the EU before and after the financial crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling.
- Recher, V. (2020). Unemployment and property crime: evidence from Croatia. Crime, Law and Social Change, 73(3), 357-376.
- Rhee, H. J., & Song, J. (2020). Wage rigidities and unemployment fluctuations in a small open economy. Economic Modelling, 88, 244-262.
- Ronchetti, J., & Terriau, A. (2019). Impact of unemployment on self-perceived health. The European Journal of Health Economics, 20(6), 879- 889.
- Sansale, R., DeLoach, S. B., & Kurt, M. (2019). Unemployment duration and the personalities of young adults workers. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 79, 1-11.
- Schmillen, A. (2019). Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career. Empirical Economics, 57(3), 805-838.
- Sengul, G., & Tasci, M. (2020). Unemployment Flows, Participation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 103202.
- Sheldon, G. (2020). Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 156(1), 1-9.
- Sibande, X., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2019). Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical evidence from 1855 to 2017. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 49, 81-88.
- Siregar, T. H. (2020). Impacts of minimum wages on employment and unemployment in Indonesia. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 25(1), 62-78.
- Triaca, L. M., Jacinto, P. D. A., França, M. T. A., & Tejada, C. A. O. (2020). Does greater unemployment make people thinner in Brazil?. Health Economics
- Tüzemen, D. (2019). Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States. Economics Letters, 175, 97-100.
- Voßemer, J. (2019). The Effects of Unemployment on Non-monetary Job Quality in Europe: The Moderating Role of Economic Situation and Labor Market Policies. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 379-401.
- Wilczyńska, A., Batorski, D., & Torrent-Sellens, J. (2020). Precarious Knowledge Work? The Combined Effect of Occupational Unemployment and Flexible Employment on Job Insecurity. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11(1), 281-304
- World Development Indicators, (2020). Retrieved April 15, 2020, from http://wdi.worldbank.org/tables
- Yavorsky, J. E., & Dill, J. (2020). Unemployment and men's entrance into female-dominated jobs. Social Science Research, 85, 102373.
Cite this article
-
APA : Niazi, A. A. K., Qazi, T. F., & Basit, A. (2021). Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries. Global Regional Review, VI(I), 23-35. https://doi.org/10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04
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CHICAGO : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. 2021. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI (I): 23-35 doi: 10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04
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HARVARD : NIAZI, A. A. K., QAZI, T. F. & BASIT, A. 2021. Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries. Global Regional Review, VI, 23-35.
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MHRA : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. 2021. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI: 23-35
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MLA : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review, VI.I (2021): 23-35 Print.
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OXFORD : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Qazi, Tehmina Fiaz, and Basit, Abdul (2021), "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries", Global Regional Review, VI (I), 23-35
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TURABIAN : Niazi, Abdul Aziz Khan, Tehmina Fiaz Qazi, and Abdul Basit. "Evaluating Unemployment through Grey Incidence Analysis Model: A Study of One Hundred Thirteen Selected Countries." Global Regional Review VI, no. I (2021): 23-35. https://doi.org/10.31703/grr.2021(VI-I).04