Abstract

The main objective of this research is to give an insight into the effect of climate change on Pakistan, the case study selected for this research is the 2022 flood. An enormous amount of human misery and economic devastation was wrought by the catastrophic monsoon floods that struck Pakistan in 2022 Pakistan's. The purpose of this study is to look into whether there is a connection between these storms and climate change. Specifically, it will try to figure out how much climate change contributed to how bad the disaster was and what weaknesses made it worse. In addition, the study will look at how well Pakistan's current crisis planning and reaction systems work and suggest ways to make the country more resilient against future climate-related disasters. A mixed-methods study method has been used for this research.

Key Words

Climate Change, Flood, Natural Calamities, Environmental Impacts, Global Warming,

Introduction

One of the biggest obstacles to economic development is the eighteen significant floods that have occurred in 60 years, or nearly one major flood event every three years. Over 10,000 individuals lost their lives in all, and the nation lost $30 billion in total in economic losses. A total of 567,132 square km was impacted by the eighteen big flood events (1950, 1956, 1973, 1976,1978,1988,1992 and 2010 (Sami et al., 2019) resulting in the reported damage or destruction of 127,375 settlements. Natural disasters including earthquakes, dry spells, and inundations have long been experienced by Pakistan. Due to its topography and geographic location, the nation is located in a region that is very vulnerable to natural disasters. Because of the intense monsoon rains, Pakistan's lifeline, the Indus River, frequently floods. The river has previously flooded multiple times, seriously damaging both property and lives. Among the worst natural disasters Pakistan has ever experienced were the 2010 floods. Over 20 million people were affected by the floods, which caused damages of about $43 billion (Hashmi, 2012). Strong monsoon rains, exacerbated by the consequences of climate change, set off the floods. Food shortages and financial losses resulted from the floods that wrecked houses, businesses, and crops.

Pakistan has been dealing with the terrible effects of natural disasters for a long time. In recent years, they have become much more common and severe. This growing trend is a major threat to the health and well-being of the people in the country and its economic growth. The Indus River basin in particular has been devastated by the repeated monsoon floods that have hit different regions of the nation (Ahmad, 2021). The destruction of agricultural land, infrastructure, and human populations is enormous, and these floods are often made worse by issues such as deforestation, glacial meltwater, and insufficient drainage systems. Severe droughts have resulted from extended periods of inadequate rainfall, especially in the western and southern areas. Millions of people have been hit hard by the droughts, which have led to failed crops, water shortages, and hunger. Heat waves, cyclones, and storms have become more common and severely destructive throughout the nation (Ahmad et al., 2022). Exacerbating preexisting vulnerabilities, these catastrophes have caused fatalities, population displacements, and infrastructure destruction. Earthquakes are a real possibility in Pakistan due to the country's location in a seismically active area (Ali, 2020). Better earthquake preparation and mitigation measures have to be put in place since previous earthquakes have caused a lot of damage and deaths.

Among Pakistan's worst natural catastrophes, the country was left reeling in 2022. Over a third of the nation was overwhelmed by devastating floods caused by unprecedented monsoon rains that were three times the usual, forcing millions to flee their homes and wreaking havoc on the landscape. Extreme weather events, which may be exacerbated by global warming, are becoming more often and destructive, as this tragedy shows. Entire towns were inundated in the 2022 floods, which also wiped off important infrastructure and devastated farmland. Scientists are pointing to a possible connection between climate change and the floods, but the excessive monsoon rains were the immediate cause. More atmospheric moisture and more severe precipitation events are a result of changing weather patterns brought forth by rising global temperatures. The disastrous severity of the 2022 floods was likely caused by this, along with factors like glacier melt-water and poor drainage infrastructure (Fahad, 2022). The world should take note of Pakistan's predicament. It stresses how critical it is to act quickly to combat climate change and develop appropriate adaptation plans to lessen its destructive effects. Despite having a negligible impact on global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is leading the fight against climate-related catastrophes. This shows how underdeveloped countries are bearing the brunt of climate change, and how important it is for countries throughout the world to work together to combat this issue. Consequently, it is critical to study how climate change contributed to the floods in Pakistan in 2022. Pakistan, like other vulnerable communities throughout the globe, may be better prepared for the future if we can identify the causes and think forward to potential outcomes.




Research Questions

1. What were the socio-economic impacts of the 2022 flood on local communities in the affected regions?

2. How climate change has resulted in Natural Calamities, especially the floods of 2022?

Literature Review

The impacts of climate change have been the subject of extensive research over the past few decades, with particular attention to its influence on natural disasters. A literature review is a critical analysis of existing research, theories, and publications relevant to a particular topic. The following literature has been studied before answering the questions: 

 “Public Health and Health System’s Responsiveness During the 2022 Floods in Pakistan: What Needs to Be Done" (Abdullah, 2024) examines the public health challenges and the responsiveness of the health system during the 2022 floods in Pakistan, focusing on necessary actions for future disaster management. Amidst the devastating floods, Pakistan's health system faced multifaceted challenges ranging from infrastructure damage to disease outbreaks. The floods exacerbated pre-existing health disparities and strained the capacity of healthcare facilities, leading to inadequate access to medical services, clean water, and sanitation. One crucial aspect highlighted in the article is the urgent need for a proactive approach to disaster preparedness and response in Pakistan. The authors emphasize the importance of implementing comprehensive disaster management strategies that prioritize public health needs. This includes investing in resilient healthcare infrastructure, establishing early warning systems, and enhancing community-based disaster preparedness initiatives. 

“Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan” (Otto et al., 2023) argued that climate change is aggravating extreme monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan's most sensitive regions. Pointing fingers at more significant climate changes brought on by human activity, the paper explores the subject of the monsoon rains and how they have become more strong and frequent. Particularly for individuals living in low-lying areas, informal settlements, and areas with inadequate infrastructure, the study emphasizes the disproportionate effect of too much rain and flooding on underprivileged people. It centers on underprivileged neighborhoods and their experiences there. These individuals are more threatened by flooding brought on by climate change, which raises public health issues, food shortages, and displacement risk as well as loss of livelihoods. The paper emphasizes that Pakistan has to act preventatively to handle the always-shifting issues brought about by strong monsoons. Better early warning systems, strengthened infrastructure, and sustainable land-use planning are among the adaptive strategies meant to increase the resilience of sensitive populations. The study underlines the need for worldwide cooperation and coordinated strategies in order to address the causes of climate change and minimize its consequences on sensitive groups. All of these are desperately needed are lower greenhouse gas emissions, support sustainable development practices, and help adaption projects that prioritize the needs of underprivileged communities. The essay emphasizes the crucial need for adaptation and resilience strategies in order to minimize the effect of Pakistan's terrible monsoon floods and other climate-related disasters. 

The article “The Pakistan Flood of August 2022: Causes and Implications” (J. S. Nanditha, 2023) discusses that extreme exposure and sensitivity of South Asia have caused floods to become more common, claims "The Pakistan Flood of August 2022: Causes and Implications" (Nanditha, 2023). The August 2022 Pakistan flood is a forerunner of the extent of damage a warmer earth can do. In terms of both distance and duration, the extent of the 2022 floods which destroyed the southern regions of the nation was unheard-of. Although for about 33 million Pakistanis this is the main cause of displacement, the flood calamity comes second in terms of human mortality. Using past data and future climate forecasts, we study the Pakistani flood of 2022 and its consequences. A multiday, fifteen-day spell of somewhat strong precipitation over already moist ground was the main cause of the August 2022 flood. August's high precipitation was produced by two atmospheric rivers crossing southern Pakistan. Based on stream flow simulations run under several hydrological models, multiday intense precipitation was the key factor causing a flood. Many of the stations downstream of the flood had abnormally more flow than the others. Climate mitigation is desperately needed to reduce the possibility of events like the flood Pakistan may experience in 2022; South Asia is already having difficulties with adaptation. 

Theory of Global Warming

Climate change is a broad term used to refer to changes in the Earth’s climates, at local, regional, or global scales, and can also refer to the effects of these changes. In recent decades, the term 'climate change' is most often used to describe changes in the Earth's climate driven primarily by human activity since the pre-industrial period particularly the burning of fossil fuels and removal of forests, resulting in a relatively rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere. Global warming the rise in average global temperatures has major effects on ecosystems, species, and people all around the planet. The term "climate change" covers broader ground than only rising surface temperatures given the variety of elements and effects driving this phenomenon. About 97% of field-based climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause of the warming trends observed over the twentieth century. If you think (Zhang, 2023), Changing the global energy system is one of the most crucial answers to lower greenhouse gas emissions and slow down climate change. This is so because the biggest manmade (created by people) source of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide is the energy sector. 

Global warming that is, the long-term increase in the average surface temperature of the Earth is mostly caused by human activity, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is among the most significant groups monitoring and assessing advancements in global warming. The warming globe influences sea levels, weather patterns, and the frequency and degree of catastrophic events. As said in 2024 by Abhinav Dengri, 2024. 

Global warming, the steady rise in the average surface temperature of the Earth resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect, is in process. Manmade emissions the most often occurring of which are methane and carbon dioxide (CO2) increase the natural greenhouse effect. This temperature rise affects sea levels, climate patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events among other things. 

Impacts of Climate Change in Pakistan During 2022 Flood:

Social and Economic Impacts

The social and economic consequences of natural disasters in Pakistan go beyond immediate damages and have long-term effects on communities, livelihoods, and infrastructure. These disasters frequently worsen pre-existing weaknesses, resulting in the relocation of people, loss of life, destruction of property, interruption of vital services, and economic setbacks, especially in rural and marginalized regions. The world economy's future is more unpredictable than it has ever been, and this instability is very sensitive to uncertainties resulting from different economic policy decisions made by all parties involved, including governments. Climate-related risks can affect market performance and economic growth by affecting basic macroeconomic factors. The three main risks associated with floods are loss of life, damage to property, and negative impacts on communities. They also analyze the impact of these disasters on Pakistan's GDP development from 1972 to 2013 (Sardar & Javed, 2016). The loss of property has the most significant impact on economic progress. Assessment Report (AR5) for the Asia area. All of these things add up to make the nation more or less susceptible to the effects of climate change. Droughts, heat waves, landslides, cyclones, flash floods, and river and flash floods are common weather events in Pakistan.




 

Table 1

Sectors	Damages	Reconstruction Cost
Transport and Communication	113	200
Irrigation	24	37
Energy	26	9
Agriculture	429	22
Education	27	43
Health	4	4
Water and sanitation	9	6
Environment	1	18
Governance	6	5
Disaster and Risk Management	-	2
Housing	135	126
Private Sector	24	9
Livelihood Support	-	58
Financial Sector	57	39
Total	855	578

Source: (Finance Division, Government of Pakistan, 2012)

Floods Impacts on Human Health

The health sector has been affected by the floods such as the hospitals, health units in far-off areas, and their medical facilities and treatment. The studies indicate that at least 430 medical facilities were either totally destroyed or substantially damaged. Apparently, at least 35,000 Lady Health Workers (LHW) have been compelled to flee their homes (Muhammad, 2024). Among these, 186,407 (mainly youngsters) experienced diarrhea 34,449 had gastroenteritis; 173,592 had acute respiratory infections; 129,265 had malaria; 196580 had skin diseases; 3855 had head strokes; 76,414 had eye infections; and 298,814 had various disorders. Out of a total of 295,610 persons who had different vaccinations, more than 66.352 persons got hepatitis immunizations. Apart from this, there were 525 deliveries in the relief camps and 355 recorded snake bite cases (Ali, 2014). 

In March 2023, UNICEF reported that over 10 million individuals, including children, residing in flood-affected regions continue to lack access to potable water, resulting in families being compelled to consume and utilize water that may be contaminated with diseases (Muhammad, 2024). The current state of affairs is highly concerning due to the rising risk of waterborne infections, which is exacerbating the strain on already overburdened healthcare infrastructure. Urgent measures must be taken to tackle the deficiency of potable water and sanitation facilities to avert additional health emergencies in these susceptible communities. The revised Pakistan 2022 Floods Response Plan highlights that the adverse impact on drinking supply systems and over 1,460 public health facilities and their contents has resulted in diminished availability of safe and uncontaminated water, as well as hindered the delivery of healthcare services during a period of heightened demand. Women experience a disproportionate impact due to their tendency to assume the responsibility of chores such as gathering water for daily domestic requirements and tending to the needs of the ill. The strategy additionally underscores the significance of giving priority to the rehabilitation of uncontaminated water sources and sanitation infrastructure in order to mitigate the transmission of waterborne illnesses. Furthermore, it underscores the necessity of implementing focused interventions aimed at assisting women in obtaining clean water and healthcare services at this pivotal period.




Impact of Flooding on Agriculture

Agriculture, which heavily relies on consistent and reliable water sources, faces challenges due to the changing water dynamics. Unpredictable precipitation patterns can disrupt crop growth cycles, impacting yields and food security. Additionally, variations in river flow and water availability affect the planning and management of irrigation systems, which are crucial for sustaining agricultural productivity. After the 2010s flood, the agricultural sector lost over 429 billion rupees, which is a large amount. To illustrate the point, cotton production's profitability fell to 11.76 million bales, below the expected 14 million bales. There has been a dramatic increase in the cost of diesel, insecticides, and agricultural inputs like urea. Approximately 200,000 people lost their lives in the devastating 2010 flood in Pakistan (Hashim,2012), which wiped out millions of animals. The total number of losses was higher in the end. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), many animals are now experiencing a severe lack of food as a result of the tragedy. The United Nations Organization (UNO) has issued a request for emergency aid amounting to 5.7 million dollars to support livestock. FAO has allocated 1.4 million dollars to ensure the provision of feed and healthcare for livestock. At present, the complete extent and magnitude of the disaster are uncertain, necessitating additional deployment of resources as the situation becomes more evident. Agriculture serves as the primary means of generating income and sustaining livelihoods for nearly 80 percent of the population residing in the affected regions. The flood of 2022 caused extensive damage to agricultural land, submerging crops, and disrupting the normal growth cycles. The inundation led to soil erosion, loss of topsoil fertility, and sedimentation in fields. Large-scale destruction of standing crops, including rice, wheat, and various cash crops, was reported across affected regions. The magnitude of the flood's impact varied, with some areas experiencing complete crop loss while others faced significant yield reduction. The flooding resulted in the displacement of farming communities, forcing many to abandon their homes and agricultural activities. The loss of livelihoods and displacement posed immediate challenges for these communities, exacerbating existing socio-economic vulnerabilities. The disruption to traditional farming practices and the dislocation of communities had profound implications for the social fabric of rural areas.

Floods 2022’s Impact on Education

The 2022 floods destroyed 34,204 classrooms across 126 districts and impacted 2.2 million children, according to the Pakistan Education Sector Working Group. For many children in the impacted areas, this meant a major disruption to their schooling, with numerous schools being either totally destroyed or made hazardous (Saeed et al., 2024). To enable kids to finish their education, the government and a number of groups have been working to rebuild and fix these institutions. Major calamities have historically disrupted children's schooling in Pakistan. Children's education has been continued in makeshift learning centers as cleanup and restoration efforts to the educational institutions damaged by the flooding take time. In an effort to help the traumatized children deal with the aftermath, efforts are also being made to offer them psychological care. To reduce the long-term damage to children's education, it is imperative that the government and nonprofits prioritize the repair of educational infrastructure. After the 2022 flood, between January and March 2023, IOM carried out a Community Needs Identification (CNI) in the provinces of Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The CNI discovered that the biggest obstacles to displaced children's access to education services were lack of learning materials, distance, and the expense of schooling. The CNI also emphasized the necessity of focused initiatives to address the unique difficulties displaced children encounter in obtaining an education (Akhtar et al., 2023). Stakeholders must work together to develop long-term solutions that will guarantee that every kid impacted by the disaster has access to a high-quality education. There was not enough school reconstruction almost a year after the floods. This makes sense given the extent of the destroyed and damaged schools, but it has serious ramifications for children's education. Inadequate school facilities are limiting the ability of relocated children to continue their education. Rebuilding schools must be given top priority in order to give these vulnerable kids a comfortable place to learn. 




Flood 2022’s Impact on Livelihood and Culture

The FAO predicts that in August 2022, approximately 9.4 million acres of agricultural land in Pakistan, with 4.8 million acres in Sindh, 2.7 million acres in Punjab, 1.2 million acres in Baluchistan, and 714,000 acres in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, might potentially be inundated by 2022 floods (Saeed et al., 2024). The supply of animal goods, such as milk and meat, as well as the livelihoods of the impacted households suffered greatly as a result of the slaughter of at least 1.2 million livestock. The country's agriculture was significantly impacted by the 2022 floods, which also destroyed roads, bridges, and irrigation systems. In order to determine the complete amount of the damage and assist the impacted farmers, the FAO is collaborating with the Pakistani government.

Given that Sindh province produces around 25% of the nation's agricultural output (Tasleem et al., 2023), it was anticipated that crop damage and lower harvests would have an impact on Pakistan's ability to feed its people. In order for farmers in Sindh province to recover from the recent flood damage and carry on supplying food for the area, the FAO's help is essential. By giving farmers the tools and information they need, we can help them recover their farms and prepare for future natural disasters. In addition to helping the farmers in Sindh province, the emphasis on enhancing infrastructure and disaster preparedness would also enhance Pakistan's overall food security. To lessen the effects of upcoming natural disasters on the local economy and food supply, it is essential that these initiatives continue.

According to the post-disaster needs assessment published in October 2022, there is a 5.9 percentage point chance that poverty will rise, putting an extra 1.9 million households at risk of falling into poverty after the 2022 flood (Manzoor & Adesola, 2022). The effects on Pakistan's fishermen are in addition to those on farmers and herders. Fishermen's livelihoods are especially susceptible to natural catastrophes since their boats and equipment are readily destroyed or damaged. It is imperative to implement disaster preparedness measures across all economic sectors to ensure the preservation of food security and economic stability in Pakistan.




Flood 2022’s Impact on Public Infrastructure

The people of affected areas were exacerbated by the extensive destruction of roads, bridges, and telecommunications infrastructure throughout the nation. Over 8,000 miles of roads (64% of the overall road damage) and 410 bridges (40% of the bridge damage) were severely destroyed by the floods, impeding people's access to safety and marketplaces. The floods resulted in significant and unparalleled destruction of Pakistan's railway infrastructure. (Cappucci et al., 2024) In addition to impeding rescue and relief operations, the devastation of infrastructure also caused disruptions in the transportation of vital commodities and services. The substantial destruction of roads and bridges in the province of Sindh presented a considerable obstacle for both the local populace and governing bodies in terms of reconstruction and recuperation. 

The Pakistan Telecommunications Authority attributed the internet outages to defects in the fiber optic network caused by the rains (Arbaz, 2024). The inadequate capacity of the current infrastructure to manage the exceptional volume of water intensified the occurrence of flash floods and landslides. The inadequate presence of drainage systems in numerous regions exacerbated the occurrence of flooding, resulting in the accumulation of water and subsequent deterioration of adjacent structures. Moreover, the disruption of communication infrastructure posed significant challenges for impacted populations in their pursuit of assistance and the efficient coordination of relief endeavors.

Government Initiatives and Challenges

The Pakistani government has acknowledged the pressing necessity to confront the difficulties presented by climate change. A major turning point in Pakistan's attempts to handle its water-related issues came with the acceptance of its first-ever National Water Policy by the Council of Common Interests on April 23, 2018. Emphasizing the need to reverse the negative consequences of climate change, this all-encompassing program combines the ideas from the National Climate Change program. The program especially addresses reducing the effects of extreme weather events such as floods, protracted droughts, and heat waves which, thanks to global climate change are becoming more common. Rising sea levels also concern the policy since they could flood coastal areas and contaminate aquifers, therefore endangering the freshwater supplies of the nation. Approved in keeping with its dedication to environmental preservation, the National Forest Policy (NFP) by Pakistan's government in 2017 The NFP seeks to grow, safeguard, and advance the sustainable use of watersheds, protected areas, national forests, and natural habitats (Beyond, 2023). The policy takes a three-pronged approach: ensuring that these initiatives help to restore natural services and enhance livelihoods; conserving existing forests; growing tree cover by community involvement; and so guaranteeing that these activities support each other.

The Pakistani government started the Ecosystem Restoration Initiative (ESRI), hence furthering its environmental goal. By means of ecologically focused initiatives, this project seeks to mainstream adaptation and mitigating methods thereby enabling the nation's shift towards environmental resilience. Establishing the Ecosystem Restoration Fund (ESRF), which funds projects and activities under ESRI, is a major component of this effort. The ESRI guarantees that economic development is attained in a way that is both ecologically sustainable and resistant to the effects of climate change by representing Pakistan's will to include ecological issues in its development plans. Focusing on the sustainable management of rangelands which are vital for the lives of rural communities and the preservation of biodiversity the National Rangelands Policy enhances these efforts (Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan, 2021).

The response of the Pakistani government to natural calamities has evolved over time, reflecting shifting priorities, institutional capacities, and policy frameworks aimed at disaster management and risk reduction. While concerted efforts have been made to strengthen early warning systems, enhance emergency preparedness, and streamline relief operations, persistent gaps remain in the areas of governance, coordination, and resource allocation. 

Conclusion

This study has carefully examined the complex connection between climate change and natural disasters in Pakistan, utilizing the catastrophic floods of 2022 as a key example. This study emphasizes the significant impact of global warming on the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes in the area by looking at historical patterns and modern statistics. With an especially eye on the disastrous floods of 2022, this paper has investigated the significant impacts of climate change on natural disasters in Pakistan. The data shows that the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including the hitherto unheard-before scope of the 2022 floods clearly link climate change to the intensity of extreme weather events. Over its history, Pakistan has seen a variety of natural calamities including floods and earthquakes. The change in seasonal weather patterns and the increase in monsoon precipitation have left the region in a dangerous condition with major repercussions for both economic and humanitarian matters. 

The findings highlight Pakistan's imminent need for better techniques of climate adaptation and disaster control. The increased sensitivity of people to extreme weather emphasizes the need for careful planning and resource allocation in order to reduce future hazards. Policymakers and interested parties must give high importance to including measures of climate resilience in national development plans and catastrophe readiness systems. The protection of infrastructure and sensitive populations depends on this. The data in this study underlines the immediate need for aggressive actions to control the consequences of climate change on natural disasters. By adopting a proactive approach and investing funds toward measures that increase resilience, Pakistan can improve its capacity to predict and mitigate the effects of upcoming disasters. In the end, this would safeguard its local areas and advance long-term environmental growth. More often intense storms are the outcome of significant modification of weather patterns brought about by climate change. Rising temperatures in Pakistan have caused the Himalayan glaciers to melt more quickly and have increased atmospheric moisture levels. These elements have made the monsoon rains more intense and aggravated flooding circumstances. The floods of 2022 were unambiguous evidence of climate change and emphasized the more general effects of global warming on local weather extremes. Unmatched in scope and intensity, the floods of 2022 caused millions of people to be displaced, infrastructure to be destroyed, and major losses in farming. The floods buried large portions of the nation, highlighting natural flaws in systems of flood control and emergency reaction. The financial effects were significant; losses of billions of dollars and an ongoing rehabilitation project that taxed national resources were outcomes.

The key challenges underlined are low community preparedness, weak early warning systems, and poor infrastructure resilience. The extent of the floods exposed flaws in present methods of disaster management and underlined the need for better, adaptable systems to manage the evolving climatic circumstances. Moreover, the detrimental effects on the injured communities especially those of impoverished people show the critical need for inclusive and fair rehabilitation policies.

Recommendations

To address the challenges posed by climate change, it is essential to implement a multi-faceted approach that includes:

? Strengthening Infrastructure: Investing in resilient infrastructure and improving flood defenses to better withstand extreme weather events.

? Enhancing Early Warning Systems: Developing and maintaining robust early warning systems to provide timely alerts and reduce the impact of disasters.

? Promoting Sustainable Practices: Encouraging sustainable land use and water management practices to minimize environmental degradation and reduce flood risks.

? Community Engagement: Empowering local communities with the knowledge and tools needed for effective disaster preparedness and response.

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